TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076616
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911211119311––
Miroslav Cyrus
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:18 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Miroslav Cyrus below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 67 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 57.3%
67 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 10–6 Miroslav Cyrus Miroslav Cyrus has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:18What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chmelicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Chmelicek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1490 vs Cyrus 1283
Chmelicek
Wrong
both rated, 207 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 40% vs Cyrus 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 70% vs Cyrus 30%
Chmelicek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +1 · Cyrus -3
Cyrus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Chmelicek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.61 / Cyrus 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Chmelicek)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13076616
Chmelicek1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 61 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it68% 48 of 71
Cyrus2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 15 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek5wins
AwayCyrus5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek80%4 of 5
AwayCyrus80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek5Cyrus5n = 10split evenly
S2Chmelicek4Cyrus6n = 10Cyrus took 6 of 10
S3Chmelicek5Cyrus5n = 10split evenly
S4Chmelicek6Cyrus4n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S5Chmelicek2Cyrus2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekCyrusChmelicek − CyrusBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.241.6−0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekCyrusBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 453 vs 80 / 18147.7%44.2%216 / 453 vs 80 / 181Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.61/Cyrus 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cyrus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 13:38M. Chmelicek—11118113M. Cyrus—891161
WAug 22 · 12:05M. Chmelicek—981111113M. Cyrus—11119782
LAug 16 · 10:35M. Chmelicek—811921M. Cyrus—11911113
LAug 10 · 21:25M. Chmelicek—10101151M. Cyrus—12129113
LAug 10 · 19:35M. Chmelicek—12101231M. Cyrus—141210113
LJul 22 · 19:05M. Chmelicek—11961162M. Cyrus—711112113
WJun 24 · 18:05M. Chmelicek—118146113M. Cyrus—911121132
LJun 9 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—51181152M. Cyrus—115115113
WJun 9 · 20:35M. Chmelicek—111111113M. Cyrus—713781
WJun 8 · 21:10M. Chmelicek—11118113M. Cyrus—981191
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123
M. Cyrus10
WSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771WSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 17:05M. Cyrus2.20156571L. Vosyka1.61131111113LSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230LSep 2 · 15:35M. Cyrus2.251760M. Flesar1.571111113WSep 2 · 14:05L. Vosyka1.6111611682M. Cyrus2.20511711113WAug 23 · 13:14R. Jaros2.3891340M. Cyrus1.531115113LAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6397111142M. Cyrus1.44111194113
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