TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13062948
Played Sep 2Finished
Jan Kabelka
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116211113611311
Matyas Rojka
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatyas Rojka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Kabelka above · Matyas Rojka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 75 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Matyas Rojka at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kabelka 6–6 Matyas Rojka Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:18What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kabelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kabelka 1433 vs Rojka 1362
Kabelka
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kabelka 20% vs Rojka 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kabelka 20% vs Rojka 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kabelka -1 · Rojka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kabelka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rojka form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKabelka 1.80 / Rojka 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kabelka)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13062948
Kabelka1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 35 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Rojka1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 15 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back26% 8 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKabelka5wins
AwayRojka5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKabelka60%3 of 5
AwayRojka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kabelka5Rojka5n = 10split evenly
S2Kabelka7Rojka3n = 10Kabelka took 7 of 10
S3Kabelka5Rojka5n = 10split evenly
S4Kabelka2Rojka5n = 7Rojka took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKabelkaRojkaK − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.637.4−0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKabelkaRojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 261 vs 89 / 18448.3%48.4%126 / 261 vs 89 / 184Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KabelkaKabelka 1.80/Rojka 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kabelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 18:35J. Kabelka—11211632M. Rojka—611311113
LJun 11 · 18:05J. Kabelka—106100M. Rojka—1211123
WJun 2 · 21:45J. Kabelka—11117113M. Rojka—781191
LJun 2 · 19:05J. Kabelka—911491M. Rojka—11411113
WMay 28 · 19:35J. Kabelka—1112113M. Rojka—91060
WMay 22 · 20:05J. Kabelka—411136153M. Rojka—1181111132
LMay 21 · 20:35J. Kabelka—1019471M. Rojka—121711113
WMar 12 · 21:05J. Kabelka—131111113M. Rojka—158931
WMar 5 · 22:40J. Kabelka—1211113M. Rojka—10750
LMar 5 · 19:35J. Kabelka—117761M. Rojka—51111113
J. Kabelka10
WSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551WSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.501211113J. Kabelka2.5010720WSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180LSep 2 · 21:18M. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7341180LSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 19:35J. Hajek1.73111184112J. Kabelka2.00791111133LSep 1 · 21:18J. Kabelka2.004570T. Krcil1.731111113WSep 1 · 20:35T. Krcil1.57127611112J. Kabelka2.251011117133
M. Rojka10
LSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551LSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.6791111113M. Rojka2.10117531LSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:05M. Chmelicek1.80111281072M. Rojka1.915101112113WSep 4 · 19:35R. Jaros3.255510M. Rojka1.331111113LSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952LSep 2 · 20:35M. Rojka1.8391314892J. Hajek1.8311111211113
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M. Rojka
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