TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13067216
Played Sep 3Finished
Ondrej Pros
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117811118117––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Pros above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 56.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Pros 5–4 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chmelicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pros 1428 vs Chmelicek 1501
Chmelicek
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pros 40% vs Chmelicek 100%
Chmelicek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pros 30% vs Chmelicek 80%
Chmelicek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pros +2 · Chmelicek +5
Chmelicek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPros 2.00 / Chmelicek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chmelicek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13067216
Pros2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 34 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back23% 13 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Chmelicek1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 60 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it68% 48 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePros5wins
AwayChmelicek4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderPros leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProsn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChmelicek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pros2Chmelicek7n = 9Chmelicek took 7 of 9
S2Pros6Chmelicek3n = 9Pros took 6 of 9
S3Pros6Chmelicek3n = 9Pros took 6 of 9
S4Pros3Chmelicek2n = 5Pros took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricProsChmelicekP − CBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match35.335.1+0.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProsChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 239 vs 214 / 44846.4%47.8%111 / 239 vs 214 / 448Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekPros 2.00/Chmelicek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJul 19 · 08:05O. Pros—111111462M. Chmelicek—138611113
WJul 17 · 17:05O. Pros—51111113M. Chmelicek—116761
LJul 17 · 16:35O. Pros—5690M. Chmelicek—1111113
LJul 2 · 17:10O. Pros—10914101M. Chmelicek—121112123
WJul 2 · 16:35O. Pros—71113143M. Chmelicek—11511121
WJun 25 · 15:05O. Pros—1111113M. Chmelicek—9590
WMay 18 · 20:35O. Pros—611311113M. Chmelicek—11511892
WApr 24 · 16:35O. Pros—1111113M. Chmelicek—8630
LDec 19 · 20:05O. Pros—74100M. Chmelicek—1111123
O. Pros10
LSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143WSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143LSep 3 · 11:35J. Hajek1.531111113O. Pros2.385540WSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda1.731191110102O. Pros2.00711812123WSep 1 · 12:35R. Neterda1.9110111591O. Pros1.80121313113LSep 1 · 11:35O. Pros3.505890R. Pokorny1.281111113LSep 1 · 10:05M. Holub1.2011811113O. Pros4.33811851LAug 27 · 17:05D. Hons1.44119117113O. Pros2.6381161162LAug 27 · 16:35O. Pros2.385440L. Vosyka1.531111113LAug 27 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.36991111113O. Pros3.0011118542
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123
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