TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12471276
Played Aug 21Finished
Martin Kucera
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1186111141012116
Tomas Beran 2000
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Kucera to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Kucera above · Tomas Beran 2000 below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 90 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Martin Kucera at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Martin Kucera 4–3 Tomas Beran 2000 Tomas Beran 2000 has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:07What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Beran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucera 1642 vs Beran 1653
Beran
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucera 40% vs Beran 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucera 50% vs Beran 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucera +1 · Beran -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Beran) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Beran form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucera 2.00 / Beran 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Beran)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #12471276
Kucera2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 8 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back11% 1 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Beran1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 7 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKucera4wins
AwayBeran3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKucera leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuceran = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBeran50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucera1Beran6n = 7Beran took 6 of 7
S2Kucera6Beran1n = 7Kucera took 6 of 7
S3Kucera4Beran3n = 7Kucera took 4 of 7
S4Kucera4Beran2n = 6Kucera took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricKuceraBeranK − BBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match37.036.7+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuceraBeranBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 117 vs 68 / 12654.7%54%64 / 117 vs 68 / 126Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BeranKucera 2.00/Beran 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Beran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kucera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 21 · 16:35M. Kucera—71111113T. Beran—115941
WJul 6 · 17:10M. Kucera—1111113T. Beran—7870
WJul 6 · 14:05M. Kucera—511411113T. Beran—11811822
LFeb 16 · 18:45M. Kucera—451181T. Beran—11119113
LFeb 16 · 16:35M. Kucera—141131182T. Beran—167113113
WFeb 2 · 18:45M. Kucera—71111133T. Beran—1184111
LFeb 2 · 16:35M. Kucera—911521T. Beran—11911113
M. Kucera10
WSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770WSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132LSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera1.44861131J. Joksch2.6311115113WSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113LAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981LAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113LAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 29 · 12:35M. Kucera1.611013811113J. Ruzicka2.20121111862
T. Beran10
WSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111LSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123WSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101WSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861LSep 1 · 17:15T. Trnka1.831111113T. Beran1.834990LSep 1 · 16:05T. Beran1.7311391172J. Joksch2.00611117113LSep 1 · 15:05T. Beran1.67101100T. Trnka2.101211123LSep 1 · 14:05T. Beran1.6177111292J. Ruzicka2.201111910113LAug 21 · 16:35T. Beran1.91115941M. Kucera1.8071111113WAug 21 · 15:05M. Mastera1.833680T. Beran1.831111113
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