TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13057836
Played Sep 1Finished
Tomas Beran 2000
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7117111191210911
Jan Ruzicka
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:53 and never touched — 61.1% is still 61.1%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
61.1%
61.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Beran 2000 above · Jan Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jan Ruzicka at 61.1%
98 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Beran 2000 2–0 Jan Ruzicka Jan Ruzicka has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Beran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Beran 1632 vs Ruzicka 1700
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 40% vs Ruzicka 80%
Ruzicka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 40% vs Ruzicka 70%
Ruzicka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran -2 · Ruzicka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Beran) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 1.61 / Ruzicka 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Beran)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13057836
Beran1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 7 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Ruzicka2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog56% won 57 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back30% 15 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBeran2wins
AwayRuzicka0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderBeran leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBeranRuzickaB − RBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match39.037.0+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 127 vs 209 / 40053.5%52.3%68 / 127 vs 209 / 400Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BeranBeran 1.61/Ruzicka 2.20
Miss
What we said
55.5%
Beran · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WDec 11 · 19:05T. Beran—611132113J. Ruzicka—118111152
WDec 9 · 15:05T. Beran—1111133J. Ruzicka—89110
T. Beran10
WSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111LSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123WSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101WSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861LSep 1 · 17:15T. Trnka1.831111113T. Beran1.834990LSep 1 · 16:05T. Beran1.7311391172J. Joksch2.00611117113LSep 1 · 15:05T. Beran1.67101100T. Trnka2.101211123LAug 21 · 17:10M. Kucera2.001161110113T. Beran1.7381141262LAug 21 · 16:35T. Beran1.91115941M. Kucera1.8071111113WAug 21 · 15:05M. Mastera1.833680T. Beran1.831111113
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472LSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143WSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670LSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791LSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.6191411113J. Martin2.201112541LSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162LSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101
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