TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13039526
Played Aug 29Finished
Jakub Ruzicka
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131210115––––
Martin Mastera
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Ruzicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Ruzicka above · Martin Mastera below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-5
Point 51 set 3, 10-5 — our read held Jakub Ruzicka at 54.0%
51 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jakub Ruzicka 7–8 Martin Mastera Jakub Ruzicka has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 02:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1657 vs Mastera 1623
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 40% vs Mastera 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 40% vs Mastera 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -3 · Mastera +1
Ruzicka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ruzicka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mastera form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.80 / Mastera 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ruzicka)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13039526
Ruzicka1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 7 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Mastera1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 47 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back26% 20 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka5wins
AwayMastera5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka83.3%5 of 6
AwayMastera100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka6Mastera4n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S2Ruzicka5Mastera5n = 10split evenly
S3Ruzicka4Mastera6n = 10Mastera took 6 of 10
S4Ruzicka3Mastera1n = 4Ruzicka took 3 of 4
S5Ruzicka1Mastera2n = 3Mastera took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaMasteraR − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.234.1+1.1per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaMasteraBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 106 vs 158 / 32337.7%48.9%40 / 106 vs 158 / 323Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.80/Mastera 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 11:35J. Ruzicka—1112113M. Mastera—31050
WAug 28 · 15:35J. Ruzicka—1113113M. Mastera—91180
WAug 26 · 14:35J. Ruzicka—111174113M. Mastera—52111182
LAug 4 · 17:04J. Ruzicka—83111152M. Mastera—111158113
LAug 4 · 16:35J. Ruzicka—710100M. Mastera—1112123
WJul 14 · 14:35J. Ruzicka—11113113M. Mastera—571151
LJul 11 · 14:35J. Ruzicka—79130M. Mastera—1111153
WJul 9 · 16:35J. Ruzicka—1311143M. Mastera—117120
LJul 4 · 08:35J. Ruzicka—12680M. Mastera—1411113
LJul 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka—12941192M. Mastera—1011113113
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123WSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113WAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113WAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113LAug 29 · 13:18J. Ruzicka1.5710570M. Mastera2.251211113LAug 29 · 12:35M. Kucera1.611013811113J. Ruzicka2.20121111862
M. Mastera10
WSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161WSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172LSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132WSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113WAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113LAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 29 · 13:18J. Ruzicka1.5710570M. Mastera2.251211113
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