TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12476469
Played Aug 22Finished
Ondrej Polak
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811116117115––
Tomas Trnka
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
How it is goingOndrej Polak above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 70 set 4, 11-5
70 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Polak 2–2 Tomas Trnka Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 2.00 / Trnka 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Trnka)-7.7pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12476469
Polak2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog63% won 17 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back57% 8 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back33% 2 of 6
Trnka1.73
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 61 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it80% 45 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePolak2wins
AwayTrnka2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak66.7%2 of 3
AwayTrnkan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak3Trnka1n = 4Polak took 3 of 4
S2Polak0Trnka4n = 4Trnka took 4 of 4
S3Polak3Trnka1n = 4Polak took 3 of 4
S4Polak2Trnka2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPolakTrnkaP − TBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match41.542.5−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 140 vs 131 / 24457.1%53.7%80 / 140 vs 131 / 244Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 2.00/Trnka 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak—126115133T. Trnka—1011411112
LFeb 13 · 22:40O. Polak—961111122T. Trnka—111188143
LFeb 13 · 21:05O. Polak—117751T. Trnka—81111113
WJan 25 · 18:40O. Polak—11711113T. Trnka—611491
O. Polak10
WSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113WAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak1.73126115133T. Trnka2.001011411112WAug 22 · 15:05T. Bartik1.67105111182O. Polak2.10121188113LAug 22 · 14:35F. Karel1.671111113O. Polak2.109640LAug 17 · 17:35O. Polak1.6110119101J. Muska2.2012311123WAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak1.8314117133J. Muska1.8312911111WAug 17 · 15:05M. Mastera2.005860O. Polak1.731111113LAug 17 · 14:35F. Karel1.83581114113O. Polak1.83111191232WAug 12 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.77116111292O. Polak1.87911814113
T. Trnka10
LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113LSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770LSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970LSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113LSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162LAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak1.73126115133T. Trnka2.001011411112
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