TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12475611
Played Aug 22Finished
Tomas Bartik
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012511118118811
Ondrej Polak
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:21 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Bartik to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Bartik above · Ondrej Polak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Bartik at 58.8%
95 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Bartik 6–4 Ondrej Polak Ondrej Polak has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:21What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Bartik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Bartik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartik 1727 vs Polak 1705
Bartik
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartik 60% vs Polak 40%
Bartik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartik 70% vs Polak 50%
Bartik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartik +1 · Polak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Bartik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartik 1.67 / Polak 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Bartik)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12475611
Bartik1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 74 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it78% 55 of 71
Polak2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog63% won 17 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back57% 8 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back33% 2 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBartik6wins
AwayPolak4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBartik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartik83.3%5 of 6
AwayPolak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartik6Polak4n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S2Bartik4Polak6n = 10Polak took 6 of 10
S3Bartik4Polak6n = 10Polak took 6 of 10
S4Bartik6Polak3n = 9Bartik took 6 of 9
S5Bartik3Polak2n = 5Bartik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartikPolakB − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.439.9+2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartikPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 300 vs 81 / 14159.3%57.5%178 / 300 vs 81 / 141Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartikBartik 1.67/Polak 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.8%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 15:05T. Bartik—105111182O. Polak—121188113
WAug 10 · 17:10T. Bartik—111211113O. Polak—7101361
LAug 10 · 15:05T. Bartik—111111532O. Polak—613511113
LJun 23 · 15:35T. Bartik—691181O. Polak—11119113
WJun 19 · 10:35T. Bartik—11116113O. Polak—691181
WJun 14 · 16:05T. Bartik—911119113O. Polak—11541132
LJun 12 · 11:35T. Bartik—9390O. Polak—1111113
WFeb 22 · 18:10T. Bartik—119611113O. Polak—21111752
WFeb 22 · 16:05T. Bartik—11166113O. Polak—7141171
WJan 17 · 21:05T. Bartik—13101111113O. Polak—111213672
T. Bartik10
LSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113WSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123LSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 22 · 21:34F. Karel1.807101121T. Bartik1.9111127113LAug 22 · 20:05T. Bartik1.808670F. Karel1.911111113
O. Polak10
WSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113WAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak2.0081111113T. Trnka1.73116751WAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak1.73126115133T. Trnka2.001011411112LAug 22 · 14:35F. Karel1.671111113O. Polak2.109640LAug 17 · 17:35O. Polak1.6110119101J. Muska2.2012311123WAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak1.8314117133J. Muska1.8312911111WAug 17 · 15:05M. Mastera2.005860O. Polak1.731111113LAug 17 · 14:35F. Karel1.83581114113O. Polak1.83111191232WAug 12 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.77116111292O. Polak1.87911814113
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