TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13108600
Played Sep 10Finished
Ondrej Polak
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111141012811––
Matej Holub
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:14 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Polak above · Matej Holub below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 59.7%
73 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Polak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Polak 1705 vs Holub 1616
Polak
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Holub 40%
Polak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 60% vs Holub 30%
Polak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak +3 · Holub -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Polak) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.50 / Holub 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Polak)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13108600
Polak1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 29 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Holub2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog51% won 40 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back32% 13 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 141 vs 118 / 20957.5%56.5%81 / 141 vs 118 / 209Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.50/Holub 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holub won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
O. Polak10
WSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113WAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak2.0081111113T. Trnka1.73116751WAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak1.73126115133T. Trnka2.001011411112WAug 22 · 15:05T. Bartik1.67105111182O. Polak2.10121188113LAug 22 · 14:35F. Karel1.671111113O. Polak2.109640LAug 17 · 17:35O. Polak1.6110119101J. Muska2.2012311123WAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak1.8314117133J. Muska1.8312911111WAug 17 · 15:05M. Mastera2.005860O. Polak1.731111113LAug 17 · 14:35F. Karel1.83581114113O. Polak1.83111191232WAug 12 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.77116111292O. Polak1.87911814113
M. Holub10
WSep 10 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.50118911102M. Holub2.50811119123LSep 10 · 13:10M. Holub2.00811111162R. Fitl1.73111398113LSep 10 · 12:05M. Holub1.7341113182J. Ruzicka2.001181111113LSep 10 · 11:05M. Holub1.801011112132R. Vosyka1.91126911153WSep 10 · 10:05M. Holub2.00111198113R. Fitl1.7377111172WSep 7 · 13:14R. Vavricka2.1051161162M. Holub1.67118118113WSep 7 · 12:05M. Holub1.839111111113R. Neterda1.8311713482LSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub1.80961161R. Fitl1.9111118113LSep 7 · 10:05M. Holub1.73111011942R. Vavricka2.00912811113LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111
Upcoming Matches
O. Polak
Nothing scheduled
M. Holub
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