TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089623
Played Sep 7Finished
Matej Holub
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191012118911411
Richard Vavricka
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 96 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Matej Holub at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 3–1 Richard Vavricka Richard Vavricka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:42What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Holub
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1650 vs Vavricka 1430
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 220 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 40% vs Vavricka 20%
Holub
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 60% vs Vavricka 30%
Holub
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -2 · Vavricka -4
Vavricka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavricka form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.73 / Vavricka 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Holub)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13089623
Holub1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 42 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it78% 29 of 37
Vavricka2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 23 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back33% 10 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHolub3wins
AwayVavricka1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderHolub leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub2Vavricka2n = 4split evenly
S2Holub3Vavricka1n = 4Holub took 3 of 4
S3Holub4Vavricka0n = 4Holub took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricHolubVavrickaH − VBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match39.034.5+4.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 201 vs 101 / 19657.2%51.5%115 / 201 vs 101 / 196Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.73/Vavricka 2.00
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vavricka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WMay 16 · 15:35M. Holub—1111113R. Vavricka—8990
WApr 5 · 16:35M. Holub—1312113R. Vavricka—111070
LFeb 1 · 13:05M. Holub—82111662R. Vavricka—1111914113
WDec 13 · 17:35M. Holub—111111113R. Vavricka—137261
M. Holub10
LSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub1.80961161R. Fitl1.9111118113LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111LSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113WSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111LSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861WSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460WSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub2.0051112133R. Neterda1.7311810111WSep 1 · 10:05M. Holub1.2011811113O. Pros4.33811851
R. Vavricka10
LSep 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka2.20711691R. Neterda1.6111411113LSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100LSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771LSep 5 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.10411118113R. Vavricka1.6711881142WAug 23 · 09:05J. Jr1.831191151R. Vavricka1.8313115113LAug 23 · 08:35J. Jr1.911111113R. Vavricka1.805690WAug 23 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38913118133R. Vosyka1.531111911112LAug 23 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.571211113R. Vavricka2.2510770WAug 15 · 13:09P. Pesout2.383812111R. Vavricka1.53111110133
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