TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089603
Played Sep 7Finished
Richard Vavricka
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711114611911––
Radek Neterda
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:42 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingRichard Vavricka above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 70 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Radek Neterda at 57.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Richard Vavricka 3–8 Radek Neterda Richard Vavricka has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Neterda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Neterda
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavricka 1447 vs Neterda 1522
Neterda
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavricka 20% vs Neterda 60%
Neterda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavricka 40% vs Neterda 60%
Neterda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavricka +1 · Neterda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Neterda) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavricka form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavricka 2.20 / Neterda 1.61
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Neterda)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13089603
Vavricka2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 23 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back33% 10 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Neterda1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 55 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVavricka3wins
AwayNeterda7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavricka50%2 of 4
AwayNeterda83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavricka4Neterda6n = 10Neterda took 6 of 10
S2Vavricka4Neterda6n = 10Neterda took 6 of 10
S3Vavricka1Neterda9n = 10Neterda took 9 of 10
S4Vavricka4Neterda5n = 9Neterda took 5 of 9
S5Vavricka3Neterda1n = 4Vavricka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVavrickaNeterdaV − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.842.4−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavrickaNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 197 vs 198 / 38951.8%50.9%102 / 197 vs 198 / 389Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaVavricka 2.20/Neterda 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Neterda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 26 · 20:05R. Vavricka—51010R. Neterda—1112113
LJun 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka—1191291R. Neterda—71114113
WMay 16 · 17:05R. Vavricka—1110411113R. Neterda—81211962
LMay 16 · 14:05R. Vavricka—1071181R. Neterda—12119113
LApr 5 · 14:35R. Vavricka—911941R. Neterda—11611113
WFeb 28 · 22:15R. Vavricka—911711113R. Neterda—11611352
LFeb 28 · 21:05R. Vavricka—911891R. Neterda—11611113
WJan 23 · 22:10R. Vavricka—12101011123R. Neterda—1012127102
LJan 23 · 21:35R. Vavricka—71341182R. Neterda—1111117113
LDec 26 · 14:40R. Vavricka—117491R. Neterda—91111113
R. Vavricka10
LSep 7 · 12:35R. Fitl1.50115413113R. Vavricka2.50611111182WSep 7 · 10:05M. Holub1.73111011942R. Vavricka2.00912811113LSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100LSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771LSep 5 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.10411118113R. Vavricka1.6711881142WAug 23 · 09:05J. Jr1.831191151R. Vavricka1.8313115113LAug 23 · 08:35J. Jr1.911111113R. Vavricka1.805690WAug 23 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38913118133R. Vosyka1.531111911112LAug 23 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.571211113R. Vavricka2.2510770
R. Neterda10
LSep 7 · 12:05M. Holub1.839111111113R. Neterda1.8311713482WSep 7 · 10:35R. Neterda1.80111112113R. Fitl1.91431491LSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113WSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113LSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113WSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113WSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562WSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113
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