TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089604
Played Sep 7Finished
Radek Fitl
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1165114111311118
Richard Vavricka
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:41 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Fitl above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Radek Fitl at 61.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fitl 4–5 Richard Vavricka Radek Fitl has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Fitl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fitl 1569 vs Vavricka 1437
Fitl
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fitl 60% vs Vavricka 20%
Fitl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fitl 50% vs Vavricka 30%
Fitl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fitl +1 · Vavricka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Fitl) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavricka form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFitl 1.50 / Vavricka 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Fitl)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13089604
Fitl1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 77 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it79% 57 of 72
Vavricka2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 23 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back33% 10 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeFitl4wins
AwayVavricka5wins
1 of 9 to a deciderVavricka leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFitl100%3 of 3
AwayVavricka83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fitl3Vavricka6n = 9Vavricka took 6 of 9
S2Fitl4Vavricka5n = 9Vavricka took 5 of 9
S3Fitl4Vavricka5n = 9Vavricka took 5 of 9
S4Fitl2Vavricka3n = 5Vavricka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricFitlVavrickaF − VBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match34.835.9−1.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFitlVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 337 vs 102 / 19851.6%51.5%174 / 337 vs 102 / 198Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlFitl 1.50/Vavricka 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Fitl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl—111215113R. Vavricka—3101771
WAug 15 · 11:35R. Fitl—1113113R. Vavricka—81180
LAug 15 · 09:40R. Fitl—9970R. Vavricka—1111113
WAug 15 · 06:05R. Fitl—11117113R. Vavricka—651171
LJun 20 · 20:05R. Fitl—891161R. Vavricka—11119113
LMay 16 · 19:05R. Fitl—981861R. Vavricka—111116113
LMay 7 · 21:10R. Fitl—5830R. Vavricka—1111113
WMay 7 · 20:05R. Fitl—611119113R. Vavricka—11641172
LMar 20 · 21:35R. Fitl—71080R. Vavricka—1112113
R. Fitl10
WSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub1.80961161R. Fitl1.9111118113LSep 7 · 10:35R. Neterda1.80111112113R. Fitl1.91431491WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150
R. Vavricka10
LSep 7 · 13:14R. Vavricka2.1051161162M. Holub1.67118118113LSep 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka2.20711691R. Neterda1.6111411113WSep 7 · 10:05M. Holub1.73111011942R. Vavricka2.00912811113LSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100LSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771LSep 5 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.10411118113R. Vavricka1.6711881142WAug 23 · 09:05J. Jr1.831191151R. Vavricka1.8313115113LAug 23 · 08:35J. Jr1.911111113R. Vavricka1.805690WAug 23 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38913118133R. Vosyka1.531111911112
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