TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089625
Played Sep 7Finished
Matej Holub
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911611118611––
Radek Fitl
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:42 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeMatej Holub to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Matej Holub at 55.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 8–9 Radek Fitl Matej Holub has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:42What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1633 vs Fitl 1555
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 40% vs Fitl 60%
Fitl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 60% vs Fitl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -3 · Fitl -1
Holub
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.80 / Fitl 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Holub)+3.8pp
TT Cup · #13089625
Holub1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 42 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it78% 29 of 37
Fitl1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 53 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub4wins
AwayFitl6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFitl leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub40%2 of 5
AwayFitl60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub5Fitl5n = 10split evenly
S2Holub3Fitl7n = 10Fitl took 7 of 10
S3Holub6Fitl4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S4Holub3Fitl4n = 7Fitl took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubFitlH − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.238.1−3.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 202 vs 173 / 33656.9%51.5%115 / 202 vs 173 / 336Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.80/Fitl 1.91
Miss
What we said
55.3%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 12:05M. Holub—61111153R. Fitl—1189131
LAug 26 · 12:35M. Holub—7740R. Fitl—1111113
LAug 20 · 10:35M. Holub—11211652R. Fitl—811611113
LAug 18 · 17:40M. Holub—137551R. Fitl—111111113
WAug 18 · 16:05M. Holub—11413113R. Fitl—6111181
WAug 11 · 16:05M. Holub—51111113R. Fitl—111981
LAug 6 · 17:44M. Holub—1110761R. Fitl—81211113
WAug 6 · 15:35M. Holub—1111163R. Fitl—88140
LAug 2 · 07:35M. Holub—9911101R. Fitl—11119123
LAug 1 · 07:35M. Holub—12970R. Fitl—1411113
M. Holub10
LSep 7 · 10:05M. Holub1.73111011942R. Vavricka2.00912811113LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111LSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113WSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111LSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861WSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460WSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub2.0051112133R. Neterda1.7311810111WSep 1 · 10:05M. Holub1.2011811113O. Pros4.33811851
R. Fitl10
LSep 7 · 10:35R. Neterda1.80111112113R. Fitl1.91431491WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150WSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113
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