TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13092839
Played Sep 7Finished
Richard Vavricka
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511118611118611
Matej Holub
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingRichard Vavricka above · Matej Holub below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 88 set 5, 6-11
88 points played in total.
H2H Richard Vavricka 2–3 Matej Holub Richard Vavricka has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Vavricka beat Holub 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavricka 2.10 / Holub 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Holub)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13092839
Vavricka2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 23 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back33% 10 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Holub1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 42 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it78% 29 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVavricka2wins
AwayHolub3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderHolub leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavrickan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHolub66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavricka2Holub3n = 5Holub took 3 of 5
S2Vavricka2Holub3n = 5Holub took 3 of 5
S3Vavricka0Holub5n = 5Holub took 5 of 5
S4Vavricka1Holub2n = 3Holub took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricVavrickaHolubV − HBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.840.2−2.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavrickaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 199 vs 116 / 20451.3%56.9%102 / 199 vs 116 / 204Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubVavricka 2.10/Holub 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 7 · 10:05R. Vavricka—912811113M. Holub—111011942
LMay 16 · 15:35R. Vavricka—8990M. Holub—1111113
LApr 5 · 16:35R. Vavricka—111070M. Holub—1312113
WFeb 1 · 13:05R. Vavricka—1111914113M. Holub—82111662
LDec 13 · 17:35R. Vavricka—137261M. Holub—111111113
R. Vavricka10
LSep 7 · 12:35R. Fitl1.50115413113R. Vavricka2.50611111182LSep 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka2.20711691R. Neterda1.6111411113WSep 7 · 10:05M. Holub1.73111011942R. Vavricka2.00912811113LSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100LSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771LSep 5 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.10411118113R. Vavricka1.6711881142WAug 23 · 09:05J. Jr1.831191151R. Vavricka1.8313115113LAug 23 · 08:35J. Jr1.911111113R. Vavricka1.805690WAug 23 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38913118133R. Vosyka1.531111911112
M. Holub10
WSep 7 · 12:05M. Holub1.839111111113R. Neterda1.8311713482LSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub1.80961161R. Fitl1.9111118113LSep 7 · 10:05M. Holub1.73111011942R. Vavricka2.00912811113LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111LSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113WSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111LSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861WSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460WSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030
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