TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089618
Played Sep 7Finished
Matej Holub
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111171113114118
Radek Neterda
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 96 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Matej Holub at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 4–10 Radek Neterda Matej Holub has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:41What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Neterda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-10 in 14
Neterda
Wrong
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1618 vs Neterda 1531
Holub
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 20% vs Neterda 80%
Neterda
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 50% vs Neterda 70%
Neterda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -4 · Neterda +2
Holub
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.83 / Neterda 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holub)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13089618
Holub1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Neterda1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub3wins
AwayNeterda7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub0%0 of 3
AwayNeterda57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub3Neterda7n = 10Neterda took 7 of 10
S2Holub3Neterda7n = 10Neterda took 7 of 10
S3Holub6Neterda4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S4Holub5Neterda5n = 10split evenly
S5Holub1Neterda2n = 3Neterda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubNeterdaH − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.441.6−4.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 203 vs 199 / 39056.7%51%115 / 203 vs 199 / 390Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.83/Neterda 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub—51112133R. Neterda—11810111
LAug 28 · 11:35M. Holub—114111172R. Neterda—811139113
LAug 20 · 11:35M. Holub—117661R. Neterda—61111113
WAug 10 · 10:35M. Holub—6111011113R. Neterda—11812752
LJul 27 · 16:05M. Holub—6101161R. Neterda—11128113
LJul 19 · 13:40M. Holub—1191191R. Neterda—13115113
LJul 19 · 11:35M. Holub—5711101R. Neterda—11116123
LJul 18 · 15:35M. Holub—11551182R. Neterda—711119113
WJun 27 · 10:05M. Holub—31111113R. Neterda—119681
LMay 22 · 11:05M. Holub—481151R. Neterda—11114113
M. Holub10
WSep 7 · 13:14R. Vavricka2.1051161162M. Holub1.67118118113LSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub1.80961161R. Fitl1.9111118113LSep 7 · 10:05M. Holub1.73111011942R. Vavricka2.00912811113LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111LSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113WSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111LSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861WSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460WSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030
R. Neterda10
WSep 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka2.20711691R. Neterda1.6111411113WSep 7 · 10:35R. Neterda1.80111112113R. Fitl1.91431491LSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113WSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113LSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113WSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113WSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562WSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113
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