TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12475260
Played Aug 22Finished
Ondrej Polak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12106111145111311
Tomas Trnka
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Polak above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 94 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Polak 1–2 Tomas Trnka Ondrej Polak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:49What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Polak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1675 vs Trnka 1666
Polak
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Trnka 0%
Polak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 60% vs Trnka 20%
Polak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak +1 · Trnka -5
Trnka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Polak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.73 / Trnka 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Polak)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #12475260
Polak1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 29 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Trnka2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 20 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePolak1wins
AwayTrnka2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderTrnka leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak2Trnka1n = 3Polak took 2 of 3
S2Polak0Trnka3n = 3Trnka took 3 of 3
S3Polak2Trnka1n = 3Polak took 2 of 3
S4Polak2Trnka1n = 3Polak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPolakTrnkaP − TBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match39.741.0−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 139 vs 131 / 24356.8%53.9%79 / 139 vs 131 / 243Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.73/Trnka 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LFeb 13 · 22:40O. Polak—961111122T. Trnka—111188143
LFeb 13 · 21:05O. Polak—117751T. Trnka—81111113
WJan 25 · 18:40O. Polak—11711113T. Trnka—611491
O. Polak10
WSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113WAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak2.0081111113T. Trnka1.73116751WAug 22 · 15:05T. Bartik1.67105111182O. Polak2.10121188113LAug 22 · 14:35F. Karel1.671111113O. Polak2.109640LAug 17 · 17:35O. Polak1.6110119101J. Muska2.2012311123WAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak1.8314117133J. Muska1.8312911111WAug 17 · 15:05M. Mastera2.005860O. Polak1.731111113LAug 17 · 14:35F. Karel1.83581114113O. Polak1.83111191232WAug 12 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.77116111292O. Polak1.87911814113
T. Trnka10
LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113LSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770LSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970LSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113LSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162LAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak2.0081111113T. Trnka1.73116751
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