TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12450996
Played Aug 17Finished
Ondrej Polak
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121139111012––
Jan Muska
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:21 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Polak above · Jan Muska below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 78 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 58.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Polak 3–2 Jan Muska Jan Muska has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:21What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Polak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1675 vs Muska 1706
Muska
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Muska 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 60% vs Muska 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak +2 · Muska -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muska form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.61 / Muska 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Polak)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12450996
Polak1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 27 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it82% 14 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it76% 19 of 25
Muska2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 22 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back26% 6 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePolak3wins
AwayMuska2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderPolak leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak66.7%2 of 3
AwayMuskan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak3Muska2n = 5Polak took 3 of 5
S2Polak3Muska2n = 5Polak took 3 of 5
S3Polak3Muska2n = 5Polak took 3 of 5
S4Polak1Muska3n = 4Muska took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricPolakMuskaP − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match38.237.8+0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakMuskaBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 136 vs 38 / 7957.4%48.1%78 / 136 vs 38 / 79Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.61/Muska 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.7%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Muska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak—14117133J. Muska—12911111
WAug 12 · 11:05O. Polak—1111113J. Muska—5670
LAug 10 · 16:35O. Polak—481171J. Muska—11118113
WJul 4 · 12:05O. Polak—911119113J. Muska—11961192
LJun 30 · 11:35O. Polak—116871J. Muska—81111113
O. Polak10
WSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113WAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak2.0081111113T. Trnka1.73116751WAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak1.73126115133T. Trnka2.001011411112WAug 22 · 15:05T. Bartik1.67105111182O. Polak2.10121188113LAug 22 · 14:35F. Karel1.671111113O. Polak2.109640WAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak1.8314117133J. Muska1.8312911111WAug 17 · 15:05M. Mastera2.005860O. Polak1.731111113LAug 17 · 14:35F. Karel1.83581114113O. Polak1.83111191232WAug 12 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.77116111292O. Polak1.87911814113
J. Muska10
LAug 27 · 16:35J. Ruzicka2.201211113J. Muska1.6110960WAug 26 · 17:05J. Muska1.7311119113M. Mastera2.00891191WAug 26 · 15:35J. Muska1.73981112113M. Mastera2.00111191082LAug 26 · 14:05D. Lengal1.73661111113J. Muska2.0011118962LAug 25 · 17:40S. Vyskocil1.83114127113J. Muska1.83711101192WAug 25 · 16:05J. Muska1.731111113J. Hanak2.005580LAug 25 · 15:05J. Muska1.5381111692S. Vyskocil2.38117911113WAug 25 · 14:05J. Muska1.67111147113P. Chvatal2.1095111182WAug 19 · 13:04J. Muska1.361191114113M. Holub3.0041151672LAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak1.8314117133J. Muska1.8312911111
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