TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12474891
Played Aug 22Finished
Filip Karel
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116114––––
Ondrej Polak
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:58 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeFilip Karel to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Karel above · Ondrej Polak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 52 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Filip Karel at 56.8%
52 points played in total.
H2H Filip Karel 2–1 Ondrej Polak Ondrej Polak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Karel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karel 1787 vs Polak 1688
Karel
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karel 80% vs Polak 60%
Karel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karel 90% vs Polak 50%
Karel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karel +4 · Polak -1
Karel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Karel) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarel 1.67 / Polak 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Karel)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12474891
Karel1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 36 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it69% 22 of 32
Polak2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog63% won 17 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back57% 8 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back33% 2 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKarel2wins
AwayPolak1wins
3 of 3 to a deciderKarel leads 2–1, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karel2Polak1n = 3Karel took 2 of 3
S2Karel1Polak2n = 3Polak took 2 of 3
S3Karel1Polak2n = 3Polak took 2 of 3
S4Karel2Polak1n = 3Karel took 2 of 3
S5Karel2Polak1n = 3Karel took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKarelPolakK − PBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match45.343.7+1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 168 vs 78 / 13756.6%56.9%95 / 168 vs 78 / 137Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelKarel 1.67/Polak 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Karel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Karel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 17 · 14:35F. Karel—581114113O. Polak—111191232
LMay 27 · 11:05F. Karel—11461292O. Polak—5111110113
WFeb 22 · 15:35F. Karel—111175113O. Polak—85111122
F. Karel10
WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113WAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781
O. Polak10
WSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113WAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak2.0081111113T. Trnka1.73116751WAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak1.73126115133T. Trnka2.001011411112WAug 22 · 15:05T. Bartik1.67105111182O. Polak2.10121188113LAug 17 · 17:35O. Polak1.6110119101J. Muska2.2012311123WAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak1.8314117133J. Muska1.8312911111WAug 17 · 15:05M. Mastera2.005860O. Polak1.731111113LAug 17 · 14:35F. Karel1.83581114113O. Polak1.83111191232WAug 12 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.77116111292O. Polak1.87911814113
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