TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12447662
Played Aug 17Finished
Ondrej Polak
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
14121197111311––
Jan Muska
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Polak above · Jan Muska below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 88 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Polak 3–3 Jan Muska Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:13What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Muska
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1688 vs Muska 1694
Muska
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Muska 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 50% vs Muska 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak +1 · Muska +3
Muska
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Muska) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.83 / Muska 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Muska)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12447662
Polak1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Muska1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePolak3wins
AwayMuska3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak66.7%2 of 3
AwayMuska66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak3Muska3n = 6split evenly
S2Polak4Muska2n = 6Polak took 4 of 6
S3Polak3Muska3n = 6split evenly
S4Polak1Muska4n = 5Muska took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricPolakMuskaP − MBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match38.537.8+0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakMuskaBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 137 vs 39 / 8056.9%48.8%78 / 137 vs 39 / 80Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuskaPolak 1.83/Muska 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Muska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 17 · 17:35O. Polak—10119101J. Muska—12311123
WAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak—14117133J. Muska—12911111
WAug 12 · 11:05O. Polak—1111113J. Muska—5670
LAug 10 · 16:35O. Polak—481171J. Muska—11118113
WJul 4 · 12:05O. Polak—911119113J. Muska—11961192
LJun 30 · 11:35O. Polak—116871J. Muska—81111113
O. Polak10
WSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113WAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak2.0081111113T. Trnka1.73116751WAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak1.73126115133T. Trnka2.001011411112WAug 22 · 15:05T. Bartik1.67105111182O. Polak2.10121188113LAug 22 · 14:35F. Karel1.671111113O. Polak2.109640LAug 17 · 17:35O. Polak1.6110119101J. Muska2.2012311123WAug 17 · 15:05M. Mastera2.005860O. Polak1.731111113LAug 17 · 14:35F. Karel1.83581114113O. Polak1.83111191232WAug 12 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.77116111292O. Polak1.87911814113
J. Muska10
LAug 27 · 16:35J. Ruzicka2.201211113J. Muska1.6110960WAug 26 · 17:05J. Muska1.7311119113M. Mastera2.00891191WAug 26 · 15:35J. Muska1.73981112113M. Mastera2.00111191082LAug 26 · 14:05D. Lengal1.73661111113J. Muska2.0011118962LAug 25 · 17:40S. Vyskocil1.83114127113J. Muska1.83711101192WAug 25 · 16:05J. Muska1.731111113J. Hanak2.005580LAug 25 · 15:05J. Muska1.5381111692S. Vyskocil2.38117911113WAug 25 · 14:05J. Muska1.67111147113P. Chvatal2.1095111182WAug 19 · 13:04J. Muska1.361191114113M. Holub3.0041151672WAug 17 · 17:35O. Polak1.6110119101J. Muska2.2012311123
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