TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017790
Played Aug 27Finished
Jakub Ruzicka
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210119116––––
Jan Muska
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:53 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeJan Muska to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Ruzicka above · Jan Muska below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 59 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Jan Muska at 60.9%
59 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Ruzicka 4–6 Jan Muska Jakub Ruzicka has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 08:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Muska
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Muska
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1624 vs Muska 1712
Muska
Wrong
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 20% vs Muska 60%
Muska
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 40% vs Muska 60%
Muska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -2 · Muska +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Muska)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 2.20 / Muska 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Muska)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13017790
Ruzicka2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 23 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Muska1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite48% won 15 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it63% 12 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka4wins
AwayMuska6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMuska leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka75%3 of 4
AwayMuska83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka4Muska6n = 10Muska took 6 of 10
S2Ruzicka3Muska7n = 10Muska took 7 of 10
S3Ruzicka3Muska7n = 10Muska took 7 of 10
S4Ruzicka3Muska3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaMuskaR − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.437.7−3.3per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaMuskaBasisWin rate · lifetime35 / 95 vs 43 / 8836.8%48.9%35 / 95 vs 43 / 88Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuskaRuzicka 2.20/Muska 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Muska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 10:35J. Ruzicka—11511113J. Muska—311881
LAug 9 · 09:35J. Ruzicka—1111871J. Muska—13811113
LAug 9 · 08:35J. Ruzicka—9680J. Muska—1111113
LJul 14 · 21:15J. Ruzicka—116100J. Muska—1311123
WJul 14 · 20:35J. Ruzicka—14114133J. Muska—12911111
WJul 14 · 17:35J. Ruzicka—11111510113J. Muska—137131272
LJul 14 · 15:35J. Ruzicka—9850J. Muska—1111113
LJul 10 · 16:35J. Ruzicka—129681J. Muska—101111113
WJul 9 · 14:05J. Ruzicka—11711113J. Muska—811931
LJun 30 · 12:35J. Ruzicka—9580J. Muska—1111113
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 10 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.83811118113O. Polak1.8311551112LSep 10 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.50118911102M. Holub2.50811119123WSep 10 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.73911511113M. Mastera2.0011711972WSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123WSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113WAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113
J. Muska10
WAug 26 · 17:05J. Muska1.7311119113M. Mastera2.00891191WAug 26 · 15:35J. Muska1.73981112113M. Mastera2.00111191082LAug 26 · 14:05D. Lengal1.73661111113J. Muska2.0011118962LAug 25 · 17:40S. Vyskocil1.83114127113J. Muska1.83711101192WAug 25 · 16:05J. Muska1.731111113J. Hanak2.005580LAug 25 · 15:05J. Muska1.5381111692S. Vyskocil2.38117911113WAug 25 · 14:05J. Muska1.67111147113P. Chvatal2.1095111182WAug 19 · 13:04J. Muska1.361191114113M. Holub3.0041151672WAug 19 · 12:35J. Muska1.531211113M. Holub2.3810940LAug 19 · 11:05D. Lengal1.6771515123J. Muska2.10111313101
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