TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12457511
Played Aug 19Finished
Jan Muska
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210119114––––
Matej Holub
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:38 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeJan Muska to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Muska above · Matej Holub below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 57 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Jan Muska at 55.7%
57 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:38What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Muska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Muska 1676 vs Holub 1602
Muska
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muska 40% vs Holub 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muska 40% vs Holub 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Muska -2 · Holub -3
Holub
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Muska) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muska form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuska 1.53 / Holub 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Muska)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #12457511
Muska1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite42% won 11 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it53% 8 of 15
Holub2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 32 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back31% 10 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuskaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime39 / 82 vs 99 / 17447.6%56.9%39 / 82 vs 99 / 174Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuskaMuska 1.53/Holub 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Muska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Muska won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Muska10
LAug 27 · 16:35J. Ruzicka2.201211113J. Muska1.6110960WAug 26 · 17:05J. Muska1.7311119113M. Mastera2.00891191WAug 26 · 15:35J. Muska1.73981112113M. Mastera2.00111191082LAug 26 · 14:05D. Lengal1.73661111113J. Muska2.0011118962LAug 25 · 17:40S. Vyskocil1.83114127113J. Muska1.83711101192WAug 25 · 16:05J. Muska1.731111113J. Hanak2.005580LAug 25 · 15:05J. Muska1.5381111692S. Vyskocil2.38117911113WAug 25 · 14:05J. Muska1.67111147113P. Chvatal2.1095111182WAug 19 · 13:04J. Muska1.361191114113M. Holub3.0041151672LAug 19 · 11:05D. Lengal1.6771515123J. Muska2.10111313101
M. Holub10
WSep 10 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.50118911102M. Holub2.50811119123WSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113LSep 10 · 13:10M. Holub2.00811111162R. Fitl1.73111398113LSep 10 · 12:05M. Holub1.7341113182J. Ruzicka2.001181111113LSep 10 · 11:05M. Holub1.801011112132R. Vosyka1.91126911153WSep 10 · 10:05M. Holub2.00111198113R. Fitl1.7377111172WSep 7 · 13:14R. Vavricka2.1051161162M. Holub1.67118118113WSep 7 · 12:05M. Holub1.839111111113R. Neterda1.8311713482LSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub1.80961161R. Fitl1.9111118113LAug 19 · 13:04J. Muska1.361191114113M. Holub3.0041151672
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