TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106024
Played Sep 10Finished
Matej Holub
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117117911811117
Radek Fitl
Away
1.71
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 93 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Radek Fitl at 60.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 8–10 Radek Fitl Matej Holub has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:35What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Fitl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Fitl
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1632 vs Fitl 1687
Fitl
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 40% vs Fitl 100%
Fitl
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 50% vs Fitl 100%
Fitl
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +2 · Fitl +5
Fitl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Fitl) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fitl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.00 / Fitl 1.71
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Fitl)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13106024
Holub2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 40 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back32% 13 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Fitl1.71
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 86 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it87% 45 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it81% 65 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub4wins
AwayFitl6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFitl leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub40%2 of 5
AwayFitl60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub5Fitl5n = 10split evenly
S2Holub3Fitl7n = 10Fitl took 7 of 10
S3Holub7Fitl3n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S4Holub3Fitl5n = 8Fitl took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubFitlH − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.638.6−4.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 205 vs 188 / 35157.1%53.6%117 / 205 vs 188 / 351Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlHolub 2.00/Fitl 1.71
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Fitl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub—961161R. Fitl—11118113
WAug 31 · 12:05M. Holub—61111153R. Fitl—1189131
LAug 26 · 12:35M. Holub—7740R. Fitl—1111113
LAug 20 · 10:35M. Holub—11211652R. Fitl—811611113
LAug 18 · 17:40M. Holub—137551R. Fitl—111111113
WAug 18 · 16:05M. Holub—11413113R. Fitl—6111181
WAug 11 · 16:05M. Holub—51111113R. Fitl—111981
LAug 6 · 17:44M. Holub—1110761R. Fitl—81211113
WAug 6 · 15:35M. Holub—1111163R. Fitl—88140
LAug 2 · 07:35M. Holub—9911101R. Fitl—11119123
M. Holub10
LSep 10 · 11:05M. Holub1.801011112132R. Vosyka1.91126911153WSep 7 · 13:14R. Vavricka2.1051161162M. Holub1.67118118113WSep 7 · 12:05M. Holub1.839111111113R. Neterda1.8311713482LSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub1.80961161R. Fitl1.9111118113LSep 7 · 10:05M. Holub1.73111011942R. Vavricka2.00912811113LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111LSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113WSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111LSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861
R. Fitl10
LSep 10 · 11:35R. Fitl1.731358101J. Ruzicka2.00111111123WSep 8 · 17:39R. Fitl2.001211113R. Vosyka1.7310970WSep 8 · 16:05R. Vosyka1.5710121171R. Fitl2.2512147113WSep 8 · 15:35T. Krcil2.63611521R. Fitl1.4411611113WSep 8 · 14:35R. Fitl1.4412119113D. Hons2.631091161WSep 8 · 13:34R. Fitl1.80114911113J. Lovl1.9161111672WSep 8 · 12:05R. Fitl1.8311711113J. Lovl1.83211871WSep 8 · 11:05R. Fitl1.50711911113R. Vavricka2.5011711842WSep 8 · 10:05R. Fitl1.331111113O. Pros3.259770WSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub1.80961161R. Fitl1.9111118113
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