Radek Fitl vs Jan Lovl 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13099138

Played Sep 8Finished

Radek Fitl

Home

1.80

At publish

Won last 10

Form at publish

10–0Last 10Won last 10

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

116411911116117

Jan Lovl

Away

1.91

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

How it is goingRadek Fitl above · Jan Lovl below

Set 1 · 11-6

Set 2 · 4-11

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-6

Set 5 · 11-7

Point 87 set 5, 11-7

87 points played in total.

H2H Radek Fitl 6–9 Jan Lovl Radek Fitl has won 6 of their 15 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Same-day rematch · 2h before this match

Fitl beat Lovl 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fitl)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Fitl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsFitl 1.80 / Lovl 1.91

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Fitl)+2.5pp

TT Cup · #13099138

Fitl1.80

100%won 10 of 10 · last 10

Won last 10

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite63% won 80 of 127

Up 2–0, closes it86% 43 of 50

Up 1–0, closes it80% 60 of 75

Lovl1.91

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As underdog38% won 25 of 66

Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42

Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeFitl5wins

AwayLovl5wins

2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeFitl83.3%5 of 6

AwayLovl100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Fitl6Lovl4n = 10Fitl took 6 of 10

S2Fitl3Lovl7n = 10Lovl took 7 of 10

S3Fitl5Lovl5n = 10split evenly

S4Fitl3Lovl2n = 5Fitl took 3 of 5

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricFitlLovlF − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.235.3−1.1per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricFitlLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 346 vs 170 / 32852.9%51.8%183 / 346 vs 170 / 328Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.3per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Fitl

Fitl 1.80/Lovl 1.91

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Fitl · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Fitl won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 8 · 12:05R. Fitl—11711113J. Lovl—211871

WAug 21 · 10:35R. Fitl—1213113J. Lovl—101150

LAug 14 · 12:35R. Fitl—3980J. Lovl—1111113

LAug 7 · 13:08R. Fitl—1167101J. Lovl—81111123

WAug 7 · 12:35R. Fitl—111197123J. Lovl—781111102

LAug 6 · 13:04R. Fitl—61290J. Lovl—1114113

WAug 6 · 10:35R. Fitl—1111163J. Lovl—98140

WAug 5 · 12:35R. Fitl—11411113J. Lovl—511831

LAug 1 · 11:05R. Fitl—61050J. Lovl—1112113

LJul 21 · 14:35R. Fitl—58111142J. Lovl—111197113

R. Fitl10

WSep 8 · 14:35R. Fitl1.4412119113D. Hons2.631091161 WSep 8 · 12:05R. Fitl1.8311711113J. Lovl1.83211871 WSep 8 · 11:05R. Fitl1.50711911113R. Vavricka2.5011711842 WSep 8 · 10:05R. Fitl1.331111113O. Pros3.259770 WSep 7 · 17:40R. Fitl1.911261111123R. Fnukal1.801011813102 WSep 7 · 16:05R. Fnukal1.7316611562R. Fitl2.001411411113 WSep 7 · 15:35L. Vosyka2.009650R. Fitl1.731111113 WSep 7 · 14:35R. Fitl1.50111114113D. Hons2.50461661 WSep 7 · 13:43R. Neterda1.67131311392R. Fitl2.101115911113 WSep 7 · 12:35R. Fitl1.50115413113R. Vavricka2.50611111182

J. Lovl10

LSep 8 · 12:05R. Fitl1.8311711113J. Lovl1.83211871 WSep 8 · 11:35O. Pros2.7534121162J. Lovl1.401111107113 WSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751 LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472 WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550 LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101 WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113 WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791 WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681 LSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972

Upcoming Matches

R. Fitl

Sep 8 · 15:35R. Fitl1.44T. Krcil2.63—Sep 8 · 16:05R. Fitl2.25R. Vosyka1.57—

J. Lovl

Nothing scheduled

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