TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13094130
Played Sep 7Finished
Radek Fitl
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121061111811131210
Radek Fnukal
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:23 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Fitl above · Radek Fnukal below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 104 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Radek Fitl at 58.6%
104 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fitl 4–4 Radek Fnukal Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Fitl beat Fnukal 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:23What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fnukal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fitl 1601 vs Fnukal 1531
Fitl
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fitl 100% vs Fnukal 40%
Fitl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fitl 80% vs Fnukal 40%
Fitl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fitl +5 · Fnukal -1
Fitl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fitl) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fnukal form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFitl 1.91 / Fnukal 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Fitl)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13094130
Fitl1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 53 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Fnukal1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 22 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it58% 11 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeFitl4wins
AwayFnukal4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFitl40%2 of 5
AwayFnukal33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fitl5Fnukal3n = 8Fitl took 5 of 8
S2Fitl4Fnukal4n = 8split evenly
S3Fitl1Fnukal7n = 8Fnukal took 7 of 8
S4Fitl4Fnukal3n = 7Fitl took 4 of 7
S5Fitl2Fnukal1n = 3Fitl took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricFitlFnukalFitl − FnukalBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match43.142.5+0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFitlFnukalBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 342 vs 64 / 12952.3%49.6%179 / 342 vs 64 / 129Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlFitl 1.91/Fnukal 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fitl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 7 · 16:05R. Fitl—1411411113R. Fnukal—16611562
WSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl—1111139113R. Fnukal—97151172
LAug 14 · 13:04R. Fitl—135991R. Fnukal—111111113
WAug 14 · 10:35R. Fitl—11167113R. Fnukal—6141181
LJul 26 · 17:15R. Fitl—1110711112R. Fnukal—512118133
LJul 26 · 14:35R. Fitl—71090R. Fnukal—1112113
WJul 26 · 10:05R. Fitl—81111113R. Fnukal—116861
LJul 19 · 16:35R. Fitl—1194171R. Fnukal—91111193
R. Fitl10
WSep 7 · 16:05R. Fnukal1.7316611562R. Fitl2.001411411113WSep 7 · 15:35L. Vosyka2.009650R. Fitl1.731111113WSep 7 · 14:35R. Fitl1.50111114113D. Hons2.50461661WSep 7 · 13:43R. Neterda1.67131311392R. Fitl2.101115911113WSep 7 · 12:35R. Fitl1.50115413113R. Vavricka2.50611111182WSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub1.80961161R. Fitl1.9111118113LSep 7 · 10:35R. Neterda1.80111112113R. Fitl1.91431491WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771
R. Fnukal10
LSep 7 · 16:05R. Fnukal1.7316611562R. Fitl2.001411411113WSep 7 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.671111113D. Hons2.107870WSep 7 · 14:05R. Fnukal1.831111119113L. Vosyka1.8351381162LSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113WSep 4 · 10:05J. Joksch1.44561651R. Fnukal2.63111114113WAug 23 · 17:14D. Hons2.25119981R. Fnukal1.5781111113LAug 23 · 16:05P. Chvatal2.6351111113R. Fnukal1.44115591LAug 23 · 15:34D. Hons2.25131185113R. Fnukal1.57119111182
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