TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091521
Played Sep 7Finished
Radek Fitl
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141161416116––
David Hons
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:17 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Fitl above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 79 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Radek Fitl at 64.1%
79 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fitl 11–9 David Hons David Hons has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:17What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Fitl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Fitl
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fitl 1572 vs Hons 1498
Fitl
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fitl 80% vs Hons 40%
Fitl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fitl 60% vs Hons 40%
Fitl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fitl +3 · Hons -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Fitl) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fitl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFitl 1.50 / Hons 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Fitl)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13091521
Fitl1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 77 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it79% 57 of 72
Hons2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 60 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFitl7wins
AwayHons3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFitl leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFitl100%5 of 5
AwayHons60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fitl5Hons5n = 10split evenly
S2Fitl5Hons5n = 10split evenly
S3Fitl6Hons4n = 10Fitl took 6 of 10
S4Fitl4Hons0n = 4Fitl took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricFitlHonsF − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.931.2+3.7per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFitlHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 339 vs 230 / 46651.9%49.4%176 / 339 vs 230 / 466Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlFitl 1.50/Hons 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Fitl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 21:08R. Fitl—1111113D. Hons—9440
LSep 3 · 18:05R. Fitl—6650D. Hons—1111113
LAug 20 · 15:35R. Fitl—610120D. Hons—1112143
LAug 1 · 13:09R. Fitl—1410110D. Hons—1612133
WAug 1 · 10:35R. Fitl—11114113D. Hons—651161
WJul 28 · 10:35R. Fitl—1111113D. Hons—5770
WJul 19 · 21:08R. Fitl—1111113D. Hons—8890
WJul 19 · 20:05R. Fitl—11611113D. Hons—911761
WJul 18 · 20:05R. Fitl—11121111113D. Hons—13148852
WJul 9 · 21:45R. Fitl—51111113D. Hons—115961
R. Fitl10
WSep 7 · 13:43R. Neterda1.67131311392R. Fitl2.101115911113WSep 7 · 12:35R. Fitl1.50115413113R. Vavricka2.50611111182WSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub1.80961161R. Fitl1.9111118113LSep 7 · 10:35R. Neterda1.80111112113R. Fitl1.91431491WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562
D. Hons10
LSep 7 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.671111113D. Hons2.107870LSep 3 · 21:08D. Hons2.259440R. Fitl1.571111113LSep 3 · 20:35J. Vidourek1.6781111113D. Hons2.10115851LSep 3 · 19:35D. Hons2.50612581R. Vosyka1.50111011113WSep 3 · 18:05R. Fitl1.676650D. Hons2.101111113WAug 29 · 21:10D. Hons1.831114138113R. Pokorny1.83712151182LAug 29 · 20:35D. Hons1.531411961M. Flesar2.3816911113WAug 29 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.7351161182D. Hons2.00117115113LAug 29 · 18:35R. Vosyka1.611111123D. Hons2.2097100WAug 27 · 17:05D. Hons1.44119117113O. Pros2.6381161162
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.