TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13041070
Played Aug 29Finished
David Hons
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1416119911611––
Milan Flesar
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:58 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 87 set 4, 6-11 — our read held David Hons at 62.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 4–2 Milan Flesar Milan Flesar has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:58What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hons
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Hons
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1518 vs Flesar 1490
Hons
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 40% vs Flesar 60%
Flesar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 40% vs Flesar 70%
Flesar
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons +1 · Flesar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Hons)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.53 / Flesar 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Hons)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13041070
Hons1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 52 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it74% 36 of 49
Flesar2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 36 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back29% 15 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHons4wins
AwayFlesar2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderHons leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons100%3 of 3
AwayFlesar66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons3Flesar3n = 6split evenly
S2Hons6Flesar0n = 6Hons took 6 of 6
S3Hons2Flesar4n = 6Flesar took 4 of 6
S4Hons1Flesar3n = 4Flesar took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricHonsFlesarH − FBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.837.7+2.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 462 vs 196 / 37349.6%52.6%229 / 462 vs 196 / 373Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsHons 1.53/Flesar 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 29 · 20:35D. Hons—1411961M. Flesar—16911113
WJul 18 · 13:35D. Hons—1111133M. Flesar—86110
LJul 18 · 12:05D. Hons—5117111M. Flesar—11811133
WJun 21 · 19:35D. Hons—1113103113M. Flesar—711121182
WJun 6 · 14:35D. Hons—811711113M. Flesar—11311682
WMar 7 · 19:05D. Hons—1112113M. Flesar—81050
D. Hons10
LSep 3 · 21:08D. Hons2.259440R. Fitl1.571111113LSep 3 · 20:35J. Vidourek1.6781111113D. Hons2.10115851LSep 3 · 19:35D. Hons2.50612581R. Vosyka1.50111011113WSep 3 · 18:05R. Fitl1.676650D. Hons2.101111113WAug 29 · 21:10D. Hons1.831114138113R. Pokorny1.83712151182WAug 29 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.7351161182D. Hons2.00117115113LAug 29 · 18:35R. Vosyka1.611111123D. Hons2.2097100WAug 27 · 17:05D. Hons1.44119117113O. Pros2.6381161162LAug 27 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.571111133D. Hons2.2597110LAug 27 · 15:35L. Vosyka1.73611711133D. Hons2.00115116112
M. Flesar10
LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110WSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113WSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143LSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143
Upcoming Matches
D. Hons
M. Flesar
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