TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13070172
Played Sep 3Finished
Radek Fitl
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611511––––
David Hons
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadek Fitl above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 50 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Radek Fitl at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fitl 10–9 David Hons David Hons has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:47What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fitl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fitl 1516 vs Hons 1532
Hons
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fitl 40% vs Hons 60%
Hons
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fitl 50% vs Hons 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fitl +1 · Hons +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Fitl) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFitl 1.67 / Hons 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Fitl)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13070172
Fitl1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 71 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it84% 37 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it79% 52 of 66
Hons2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 63 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back13% 9 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFitl7wins
AwayHons3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFitl leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFitl100%5 of 5
AwayHons60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fitl5Hons5n = 10split evenly
S2Fitl4Hons6n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S3Fitl6Hons4n = 10Fitl took 6 of 10
S4Fitl5Hons0n = 5Fitl took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricFitlHonsF − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.534.0+2.5per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFitlHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 320 vs 230 / 46351.3%49.7%164 / 320 vs 230 / 463Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlFitl 1.67/Hons 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Fitl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 18:05R. Fitl—6650D. Hons—1111113
LAug 20 · 15:35R. Fitl—610120D. Hons—1112143
LAug 1 · 13:09R. Fitl—1410110D. Hons—1612133
WAug 1 · 10:35R. Fitl—11114113D. Hons—651161
WJul 28 · 10:35R. Fitl—1111113D. Hons—5770
WJul 19 · 21:08R. Fitl—1111113D. Hons—8890
WJul 19 · 20:05R. Fitl—11611113D. Hons—911761
WJul 18 · 20:05R. Fitl—11121111113D. Hons—13148852
WJul 9 · 21:45R. Fitl—51111113D. Hons—115961
WJul 9 · 19:05R. Fitl—141113113D. Hons—12131191
R. Fitl10
WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150WSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172
D. Hons10
LSep 3 · 21:08D. Hons2.259440R. Fitl1.571111113LSep 3 · 20:35J. Vidourek1.6781111113D. Hons2.10115851LSep 3 · 19:35D. Hons2.50612581R. Vosyka1.50111011113WAug 29 · 21:10D. Hons1.831114138113R. Pokorny1.83712151182LAug 29 · 20:35D. Hons1.531411961M. Flesar2.3816911113WAug 29 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.7351161182D. Hons2.00117115113LAug 29 · 18:35R. Vosyka1.611111123D. Hons2.2097100WAug 27 · 17:05D. Hons1.44119117113O. Pros2.6381161162LAug 27 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.571111133D. Hons2.2597110LAug 27 · 15:35L. Vosyka1.73611711133D. Hons2.00115116112
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