TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13044081
Played Aug 29Finished
David Hons
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11714121315811118
Radim Pokorny
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Pokorny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Radim Pokorny below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 110 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Radim Pokorny at 54.0%
110 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 12–11 Radim Pokorny Radim Pokorny has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:08What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pokorny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1506 vs Pokorny 1567
Pokorny
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 40% vs Pokorny 60%
Pokorny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 40% vs Pokorny 60%
Pokorny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons -1 · Pokorny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pokorny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.83 / Pokorny 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pokorny)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13044081
Hons1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Pokorny1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHons7wins
AwayPokorny3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHons leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons100%7 of 7
AwayPokorny100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons7Pokorny3n = 10Hons took 7 of 10
S2Hons6Pokorny4n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S3Hons8Pokorny2n = 10Hons took 8 of 10
S4Hons3Pokorny3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHonsPokornyH − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.232.7+6.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsPokornyBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 461 vs 138 / 27749.5%49.8%228 / 461 vs 138 / 277Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PokornyHons 1.83/Pokorny 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pokorny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 19:05D. Hons—117115113R. Pokorny—51161182
LAug 24 · 20:05D. Hons—931271R. Pokorny—111110113
LJul 16 · 13:40D. Hons—911711102R. Pokorny—119115123
WJul 16 · 12:35D. Hons—111110113R. Pokorny—491231
WJun 27 · 17:10D. Hons—111011113R. Pokorny—712691
WJun 27 · 15:05D. Hons—1111113R. Pokorny—8760
WJun 22 · 13:35D. Hons—1111183R. Pokorny—33160
WJun 22 · 12:35D. Hons—1113113R. Pokorny—81150
LJun 8 · 13:05D. Hons—71014101R. Pokorny—111212123
WJun 8 · 12:35D. Hons—1111113R. Pokorny—4870
D. Hons10
LSep 3 · 21:08D. Hons2.259440R. Fitl1.571111113LSep 3 · 20:35J. Vidourek1.6781111113D. Hons2.10115851LSep 3 · 19:35D. Hons2.50612581R. Vosyka1.50111011113WSep 3 · 18:05R. Fitl1.676650D. Hons2.101111113LAug 29 · 20:35D. Hons1.531411961M. Flesar2.3816911113WAug 29 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.7351161182D. Hons2.00117115113LAug 29 · 18:35R. Vosyka1.611111123D. Hons2.2097100WAug 27 · 17:05D. Hons1.44119117113O. Pros2.6381161162LAug 27 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.571111133D. Hons2.2597110LAug 27 · 15:35L. Vosyka1.73611711133D. Hons2.00115116112
R. Pokorny10
WSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113LSep 4 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7312471122R. Fitl2.001011116113LSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460LSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:35O. Pros3.505890R. Pokorny1.281111113LSep 1 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7371113792R. Neterda2.001191111113WAug 31 · 21:15R. Pokorny1.501413113J. Vidourek2.50121170LAug 29 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.7351161182D. Hons2.00117115113
Upcoming Matches
D. Hons
R. Pokorny
Nothing scheduled
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