TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091735
Played Sep 7Finished
Radek Fnukal
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1614611114511611
Radek Fitl
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Fnukal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadek Fnukal above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 95 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Radek Fnukal at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fnukal 4–3 Radek Fitl Radek Fitl has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 10:09What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fnukal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fnukal 1540 vs Fitl 1592
Fitl
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fnukal 40% vs Fitl 100%
Fitl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fnukal 40% vs Fitl 80%
Fitl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fnukal +2 · Fitl +5
Fitl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fnukal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fitl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFnukal 1.73 / Fitl 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Fitl)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13091735
Fnukal1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 22 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it58% 11 of 19
Fitl2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 53 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeFnukal4wins
AwayFitl3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderFnukal leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFnukaln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayFitl40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fnukal2Fitl5n = 7Fitl took 5 of 7
S2Fnukal4Fitl3n = 7Fnukal took 4 of 7
S3Fnukal6Fitl1n = 7Fnukal took 6 of 7
S4Fnukal3Fitl3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricFnukalFitlFnukal − FitlBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match42.342.0+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFnukalFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 128 vs 178 / 34150%52.2%64 / 128 vs 178 / 341Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlFnukal 1.73/Fitl 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fnukal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 4 · 12:35R. Fnukal—97151172R. Fitl—1111139113
WAug 14 · 13:04R. Fnukal—111111113R. Fitl—135991
LAug 14 · 10:35R. Fnukal—6141181R. Fitl—11167113
WJul 26 · 17:15R. Fnukal—512118133R. Fitl—1110711112
WJul 26 · 14:35R. Fnukal—1112113R. Fitl—71090
LJul 26 · 10:05R. Fnukal—116861R. Fitl—81111113
WJul 19 · 16:35R. Fnukal—91111193R. Fitl—1194171
R. Fnukal10
WSep 7 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.671111113D. Hons2.107870WSep 7 · 14:05R. Fnukal1.831111119113L. Vosyka1.8351381162LSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113WSep 4 · 10:05J. Joksch1.44561651R. Fnukal2.63111114113WAug 23 · 17:14D. Hons2.25119981R. Fnukal1.5781111113LAug 23 · 16:05P. Chvatal2.6351111113R. Fnukal1.44115591LAug 23 · 15:34D. Hons2.25131185113R. Fnukal1.57119111182LAug 23 · 14:35R. Fnukal1.411191113112J. Lovl2.60811415133
R. Fitl10
WSep 7 · 15:35L. Vosyka2.009650R. Fitl1.731111113WSep 7 · 14:35R. Fitl1.50111114113D. Hons2.50461661WSep 7 · 13:43R. Neterda1.67131311392R. Fitl2.101115911113WSep 7 · 12:35R. Fitl1.50115413113R. Vavricka2.50611111182WSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub1.80961161R. Fitl1.9111118113LSep 7 · 10:35R. Neterda1.80111112113R. Fitl1.91431491WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172
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