TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095308
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Lovl
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171161517115––
Richard Vavricka
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:30 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Lovl above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 15-17
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 83 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jan Lovl at 61.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jan Lovl 3–0 Richard Vavricka Richard Vavricka has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:30What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lovl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Lovl
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lovl 1562 vs Vavricka 1425
Lovl
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lovl 60% vs Vavricka 20%
Lovl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lovl 60% vs Vavricka 20%
Lovl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lovl -1 · Vavricka -3
Vavricka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Lovl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavricka form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLovl 1.57 / Vavricka 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Lovl)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13095308
Lovl1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 65 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 54 of 70
Vavricka2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 24 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back32% 11 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLovl3wins
AwayVavricka0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderLovl leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lovl2Vavricka1n = 3Lovl took 2 of 3
S2Lovl1Vavricka2n = 3Vavricka took 2 of 3
S3Lovl3Vavricka0n = 3Lovl took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricLovlVavrickaL − VBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match41.336.3+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLovlVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 325 vs 102 / 20051.7%51%168 / 325 vs 102 / 200Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlLovl 1.57/Vavricka 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WMay 31 · 11:35J. Lovl—1211113R. Vavricka—10690
WJan 1 · 18:35J. Lovl—791211123R. Vavricka—1111109102
WJan 1 · 15:05J. Lovl—12511113R. Vavricka—1011481
J. Lovl10
LSep 8 · 12:05R. Fitl1.8311711113J. Lovl1.83211871WSep 8 · 11:35O. Pros2.7534121162J. Lovl1.401111107113LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113
R. Vavricka10
LSep 8 · 11:05R. Fitl1.50711911113R. Vavricka2.5011711842LSep 7 · 13:14R. Vavricka2.1051161162M. Holub1.67118118113LSep 7 · 12:35R. Fitl1.50115413113R. Vavricka2.50611111182LSep 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka2.20711691R. Neterda1.6111411113WSep 7 · 10:05M. Holub1.73111011942R. Vavricka2.00912811113LSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100LSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771LSep 5 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.10411118113R. Vavricka1.6711881142WAug 23 · 09:05J. Jr1.831191151R. Vavricka1.8313115113
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