TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095278
Played Sep 8Finished
Radek Fitl
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
112711118117––
Jan Lovl
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Fitl above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 68 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Radek Fitl at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fitl 5–9 Jan Lovl Radek Fitl has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:30What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Lovl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Lovl
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fitl 1610 vs Lovl 1576
Fitl
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fitl 100% vs Lovl 60%
Fitl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fitl 90% vs Lovl 70%
Fitl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fitl +5 · Lovl +2
Fitl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fitl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFitl 1.83 / Lovl 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lovl)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13095278
Fitl1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Lovl1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFitl4wins
AwayLovl6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLovl leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFitl80%4 of 5
AwayLovl100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fitl5Lovl5n = 10split evenly
S2Fitl3Lovl7n = 10Lovl took 7 of 10
S3Fitl4Lovl6n = 10Lovl took 6 of 10
S4Fitl2Lovl2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricFitlLovlF − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.336.0−3.7per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFitlLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 345 vs 170 / 32752.8%52%182 / 345 vs 170 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlFitl 1.83/Lovl 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 10:35R. Fitl—1213113J. Lovl—101150
LAug 14 · 12:35R. Fitl—3980J. Lovl—1111113
LAug 7 · 13:08R. Fitl—1167101J. Lovl—81111123
WAug 7 · 12:35R. Fitl—111197123J. Lovl—781111102
LAug 6 · 13:04R. Fitl—61290J. Lovl—1114113
WAug 6 · 10:35R. Fitl—1111163J. Lovl—98140
WAug 5 · 12:35R. Fitl—11411113J. Lovl—511831
LAug 1 · 11:05R. Fitl—61050J. Lovl—1112113
LJul 21 · 14:35R. Fitl—58111142J. Lovl—111197113
LJul 19 · 17:15R. Fitl—11640J. Lovl—1311113
R. Fitl10
WSep 8 · 11:05R. Fitl1.50711911113R. Vavricka2.5011711842WSep 8 · 10:05R. Fitl1.331111113O. Pros3.259770WSep 7 · 17:40R. Fitl1.911261111123R. Fnukal1.801011813102WSep 7 · 16:05R. Fnukal1.7316611562R. Fitl2.001411411113WSep 7 · 15:35L. Vosyka2.009650R. Fitl1.731111113WSep 7 · 14:35R. Fitl1.50111114113D. Hons2.50461661WSep 7 · 13:43R. Neterda1.67131311392R. Fitl2.101115911113WSep 7 · 12:35R. Fitl1.50115413113R. Vavricka2.50611111182WSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub1.80961161R. Fitl1.9111118113LSep 7 · 10:35R. Neterda1.80111112113R. Fitl1.91431491
J. Lovl10
WSep 8 · 11:35O. Pros2.7534121162J. Lovl1.401111107113WSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113
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