TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095145
Played Sep 8Finished
Ondrej Pros
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
3114111210117611
Jan Lovl
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:51 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Pros above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 86 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jan Lovl at 70.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Pros 1–4 Jan Lovl Ondrej Pros has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:51What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lovl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Lovl
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pros 1426 vs Lovl 1569
Lovl
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pros 40% vs Lovl 60%
Lovl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pros 40% vs Lovl 60%
Lovl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pros -2 · Lovl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Lovl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lovl form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPros 2.75 / Lovl 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Lovl)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13095145
Pros2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 34 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back21% 12 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Lovl1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 65 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 54 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePros1wins
AwayLovl4wins
3 of 5 to a deciderLovl leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProsn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLovl75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pros1Lovl4n = 5Lovl took 4 of 5
S2Pros2Lovl3n = 5Lovl took 3 of 5
S3Pros2Lovl3n = 5Lovl took 3 of 5
S4Pros2Lovl2n = 4split evenly
S5Pros1Lovl2n = 3Lovl took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricProsLovlP − LBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match36.843.6−6.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProsLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 244 vs 169 / 32646.3%51.8%113 / 244 vs 169 / 326Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlPros 2.75/Lovl 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LMar 13 · 11:05O. Pros—4912101J. Lovl—111110123
LMar 10 · 14:40O. Pros—78100J. Lovl—1111123
WMar 10 · 13:05O. Pros—612119113J. Lovl—111081132
LDec 17 · 14:40O. Pros—811311102J. Lovl—117118123
LDec 17 · 12:05O. Pros—11431132J. Lovl—711118113
O. Pros10
LSep 8 · 10:05R. Fitl1.331111113O. Pros3.259770LSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143WSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143LSep 3 · 11:35J. Hajek1.531111113O. Pros2.385540WSep 3 · 10:35O. Pros2.0011811113M. Chmelicek1.73711871WSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda1.731191110102O. Pros2.00711812123WSep 1 · 12:35R. Neterda1.9110111591O. Pros1.80121313113LSep 1 · 11:35O. Pros3.505890R. Pokorny1.281111113LSep 1 · 10:05M. Holub1.2011811113O. Pros4.33811851LAug 27 · 17:05D. Hons1.44119117113O. Pros2.6381161162
J. Lovl10
LSep 8 · 12:05R. Fitl1.8311711113J. Lovl1.83211871WSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113
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