TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017670
Played Aug 26Finished
Jan Muska
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9118111191210118
Martin Mastera
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Muska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Muska above · Martin Mastera below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 100 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jan Muska at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Jan Muska 8–9 Martin Mastera Jan Muska has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:23What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Muska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muska 1714 vs Mastera 1675
Muska
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muska 40% vs Mastera 60%
Mastera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muska 50% vs Mastera 30%
Muska
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muska -2 · Mastera -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Muska)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muska form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuska 1.73 / Mastera 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Muska)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13017670
Muska1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite48% won 15 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it63% 12 of 19
Mastera2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 46 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back27% 20 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuska6wins
AwayMastera4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMuska leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuska83.3%5 of 6
AwayMastera75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muska6Mastera4n = 10Muska took 6 of 10
S2Muska3Mastera7n = 10Mastera took 7 of 10
S3Muska6Mastera4n = 10Muska took 6 of 10
S4Muska5Mastera1n = 6Muska took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMuskaMasteraMuska − MasteraBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.537.2+0.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuskaMasteraBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 92 vs 156 / 31648.9%49.4%45 / 92 vs 156 / 316Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuskaMuska 1.73/Mastera 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Muska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Muska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 17:05J. Muska—11119113M. Mastera—891191
WAug 26 · 15:35J. Muska—981112113M. Mastera—111191082
WAug 17 · 14:05J. Muska—11611123M. Mastera—6117101
WAug 10 · 17:40J. Muska—11712113M. Mastera—4111091
WAug 10 · 15:35J. Muska—1512123M. Mastera—1310100
LAug 8 · 20:35J. Muska—3970M. Mastera—1111113
WAug 8 · 16:35J. Muska—1111123M. Mastera—85100
LJul 29 · 13:08J. Muska—7740M. Mastera—1111113
LJul 29 · 12:05J. Muska—1091111122M. Mastera—121187143
LJul 20 · 15:35J. Muska—1169121M. Mastera—81111143
J. Muska10
LAug 27 · 16:35J. Ruzicka2.201211113J. Muska1.6110960WAug 26 · 17:05J. Muska1.7311119113M. Mastera2.00891191LAug 26 · 14:05D. Lengal1.73661111113J. Muska2.0011118962LAug 25 · 17:40S. Vyskocil1.83114127113J. Muska1.83711101192WAug 25 · 16:05J. Muska1.731111113J. Hanak2.005580LAug 25 · 15:05J. Muska1.5381111692S. Vyskocil2.38117911113WAug 25 · 14:05J. Muska1.67111147113P. Chvatal2.1095111182WAug 19 · 13:04J. Muska1.361191114113M. Holub3.0041151672WAug 19 · 12:35J. Muska1.531211113M. Holub2.3810940LAug 19 · 11:05D. Lengal1.6771515123J. Muska2.10111313101
M. Mastera10
LSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.73911511113M. Mastera2.0011711972WSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161WSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172LSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132WSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113LAug 26 · 17:05J. Muska1.7311119113M. Mastera2.00891191
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