TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13011362
Played Aug 25Finished
Jan Muska
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119115411711118
Pavel Chvatal
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Chvatal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Muska above · Pavel Chvatal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 88 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Pavel Chvatal at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jan Muska 1–1 Pavel Chvatal Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:36What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Muska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Muska 1704 vs Chvatal 1613
Muska
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muska 60% vs Chvatal 80%
Chvatal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muska 60% vs Chvatal 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Muska +2 · Chvatal +4
Chvatal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Muska) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvatal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuska 1.67 / Chvatal 2.10
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Muska)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #13011362
Muska1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 13 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it59% 10 of 17
Chvatal2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog51% won 36 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back33% 15 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMuska1wins
AwayChvatal1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricMuskaChvatalM − CBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match36.039.0−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuskaChvatalBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 84 vs 132 / 24348.8%54.3%41 / 84 vs 132 / 243Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuskaMuska 1.67/Chvatal 2.10
Hit
What we said
62.8%
Muska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Muska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 12 · 13:05J. Muska—611119113P. Chvatal—11871172
LAug 12 · 12:35J. Muska—51090P. Chvatal—1112113
J. Muska10
LAug 27 · 16:35J. Ruzicka2.201211113J. Muska1.6110960WAug 26 · 17:05J. Muska1.7311119113M. Mastera2.00891191WAug 26 · 15:35J. Muska1.73981112113M. Mastera2.00111191082LAug 26 · 14:05D. Lengal1.73661111113J. Muska2.0011118962LAug 25 · 17:40S. Vyskocil1.83114127113J. Muska1.83711101192WAug 25 · 16:05J. Muska1.731111113J. Hanak2.005580LAug 25 · 15:05J. Muska1.5381111692S. Vyskocil2.38117911113WAug 19 · 13:04J. Muska1.361191114113M. Holub3.0041151672WAug 19 · 12:35J. Muska1.531211113M. Holub2.3810940LAug 19 · 11:05D. Lengal1.6771515123J. Muska2.10111313101
P. Chvatal10
WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal1.916111110112M. Holub1.80119312133WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731112137113R. Neterda2.00414111142LAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272WAug 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.00991111123R. Vosyka1.73111159102
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