TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101142
Played Sep 9Finished
Adam Strelec
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1189111146111311
Jiri Matus
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Strelec above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 95 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Jiri Matus at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Adam Strelec 12–9 Jiri Matus Jiri Matus has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:20What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Matus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Strelec
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strelec 1320 vs Matus 1347
Matus
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strelec 40% vs Matus 80%
Matus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strelec 40% vs Matus 60%
Matus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strelec +1 · Matus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strelec) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrelec 1.83 / Matus 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Strelec)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13101142
Strelec1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Matus1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrelec6wins
AwayMatus4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStrelec leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrelec71.4%5 of 7
AwayMatus66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strelec7Matus3n = 10Strelec took 7 of 10
S2Strelec6Matus4n = 10Strelec took 6 of 10
S3Strelec5Matus5n = 10split evenly
S4Strelec5Matus1n = 6Strelec took 5 of 6
S5Strelec1Matus3n = 4Matus took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrelecMatusS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.237.7+1.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrelecMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 222 vs 210 / 40648.7%51.7%108 / 222 vs 210 / 406Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrelecStrelec 1.83/Matus 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Strelec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Strelec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 08:38A. Strelec—6560J. Matus—1111113
WAug 28 · 07:10A. Strelec—1111113J. Matus—6790
LAug 1 · 12:45A. Strelec—11751182J. Matus—911119113
WAug 1 · 11:15A. Strelec—18119113J. Matus—1691191
WJul 26 · 16:48A. Strelec—10111011123J. Matus—128127102
WJul 26 · 15:15A. Strelec—11711143J. Matus—7117121
LJul 3 · 09:15A. Strelec—12147672J. Matus—10121111113
WJul 3 · 06:45A. Strelec—1111113J. Matus—9780
LJun 30 · 07:15A. Strelec—108111122J. Matus—121158113
WMay 22 · 07:45A. Strelec—1111113J. Matus—5720
A. Strelec10
WSep 8 · 09:00R. Jancak1.83712761A. Strelec1.83111011113LSep 8 · 08:15A. Strelec1.731212111172R. Jancak2.00141458113WSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123LSep 8 · 06:15J. Sindler1.731111113A. Strelec2.009580LSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872LSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131LSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113LSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113
J. Matus10
WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181LAug 31 · 13:40O. Vaclahovsky1.50118411113J. Matus2.5091111372WAug 29 · 21:10R. Jancak1.6888111182J. Matus1.98111178113LAug 29 · 19:40J. Matus2.1062180R. Jancak1.671111203
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.