TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13041081
Played Aug 29Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6112111820––––
Richard Jancak
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:59 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 18-20
Point 68 set 3, 18-20 — our read held Richard Jancak at 55.8%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 11–10 Richard Jancak Richard Jancak has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jancak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1305 vs Jancak 1339
Jancak
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 40% vs Jancak 60%
Jancak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 30% vs Jancak 50%
Jancak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus +1 · Jancak +3
Jancak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jancak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 2.10 / Jancak 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Jancak)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13041081
Matus2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 25 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Jancak1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 60 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it66% 35 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus4wins
AwayJancak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJancak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus42.9%3 of 7
AwayJancak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus7Jancak3n = 10Matus took 7 of 10
S2Matus3Jancak7n = 10Jancak took 7 of 10
S3Matus5Jancak5n = 10split evenly
S4Matus3Jancak6n = 9Jancak took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusJancakM − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.738.6−1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 396 vs 129 / 25351.5%51%204 / 396 vs 129 / 253Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JancakMatus 2.10/Jancak 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Jancak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jancak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 14:15J. Matus—11561122R. Jancak—511118113
WAug 13 · 08:43J. Matus—11115113R. Jancak—891181
LAug 13 · 06:10J. Matus—951191R. Jancak—11118113
WAug 3 · 18:45J. Matus—12511113R. Jancak—1011871
WAug 2 · 18:10J. Matus—811115113R. Jancak—11981152
LJul 24 · 12:10J. Matus—117991R. Jancak—71111113
LJul 23 · 21:15J. Matus—11810121R. Jancak—71112143
LJul 23 · 18:15J. Matus—1111671R. Jancak—61311113
LJul 19 · 18:15J. Matus—481171R. Jancak—11117113
WJul 3 · 05:45J. Matus—1111113R. Jancak—5850
J. Matus10
WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181LAug 31 · 13:40O. Vaclahovsky1.50118411113J. Matus2.5091111372WAug 29 · 21:10R. Jancak1.6888111182J. Matus1.98111178113WAug 29 · 18:40J. Matus1.8081111113P. Sturma1.91113741
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942LSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113LAug 29 · 21:10R. Jancak1.6888111182J. Matus1.98111178113
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