TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058099
Played Sep 1Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111210118115––
Jiri Matus
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 77 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jiri Matus at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 17–22 Jiri Matus Patrik Sturma has won 17 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:14What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Matus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-22 in 39
Matus
Wrong
gap of 5 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1380 vs Matus 1347
Sturma
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 60% vs Matus 80%
Matus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 70% vs Matus 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma +2 · Matus +3
Matus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.91 / Matus 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Matus)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13058099
Sturma1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 138 of 282
Down 0–1, comes back38% 53 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Matus1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 96 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma4wins
AwayMatus6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMatus leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma50%3 of 6
AwayMatus75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma6Matus4n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S2Sturma5Matus5n = 10split evenly
S3Sturma4Matus6n = 10Matus took 6 of 10
S4Sturma3Matus5n = 8Matus took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaMatusS − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.736.6−1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 824 vs 210 / 40648.7%51.7%401 / 824 vs 210 / 406Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusSturma 1.91/Matus 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113
WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma—91211113J. Matus—1110851
LAug 29 · 18:40P. Sturma—113741J. Matus—81111113
WJul 28 · 18:40P. Sturma—11811113J. Matus—511981
LJul 27 · 14:40P. Sturma—1151181J. Matus—51113113
WJul 22 · 12:15P. Sturma—1111113J. Matus—9780
LJul 7 · 10:45P. Sturma—811871J. Matus—11711113
LJun 25 · 13:45P. Sturma—111110832J. Matus—591211113
WJun 22 · 18:10P. Sturma—11711113J. Matus—511571
LJun 22 · 15:10P. Sturma—1118141J. Matus—11711163
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler1.83913971P. Sturma1.83111111113LAug 30 · 15:10R. Jancak1.6111511113P. Sturma2.20511391
J. Matus10
WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181LAug 31 · 13:40O. Vaclahovsky1.50118411113J. Matus2.5091111372WAug 29 · 21:10R. Jancak1.6888111182J. Matus1.98111178113LAug 29 · 19:40J. Matus2.1062180R. Jancak1.671111203WAug 29 · 18:40J. Matus1.8081111113P. Sturma1.91113741
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