TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13057897
Played Sep 1Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711311115611––
Patrik Sturma
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:14 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Jr to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 65 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Jr at 55.2%
65 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 45–27 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 27 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:14What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-27 in 72
Jr
Wrong
gap of 18 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1357 vs Sturma 1362
Sturma
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Sturma 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Sturma 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Sturma -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.53 / Sturma 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Jr)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13057897
Jr1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 95 of 172
Up 2–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it72% 64 of 89
Sturma2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 138 of 282
Down 0–1, comes back38% 53 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr7wins
AwaySturma3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr80%4 of 5
AwaySturma40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S2Jr6Sturma4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Jr5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S4Jr8Sturma2n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrSturmaJ − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.932.7+7.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 415 vs 398 / 82053%48.5%220 / 415 vs 398 / 820Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.53/Sturma 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 20:40L. Jr—11913113P. Sturma—6111121
LAug 29 · 20:10L. Jr—711941P. Sturma—11411113
WAug 22 · 07:40L. Jr—131111113P. Sturma—152911
WAug 11 · 10:45L. Jr—61111113P. Sturma—113371
WAug 5 · 11:45L. Jr—113911113P. Sturma—21111562
WJul 29 · 18:15L. Jr—101111113P. Sturma—128361
WJul 29 · 16:44L. Jr—11110113P. Sturma—661161
LJul 29 · 16:15L. Jr—861181P. Sturma—11114113
LJul 28 · 18:10L. Jr—11971182P. Sturma—911113113
WJul 28 · 16:10L. Jr—11116113P. Sturma—961181
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler1.83913971P. Sturma1.83111111113LAug 30 · 15:10R. Jancak1.6111511113P. Sturma2.20511391
Upcoming Matches
L. Jr
P. Sturma
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