TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080352
Played Sep 5Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118711011119811
Filip Mandrysz
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 0-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 87 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Jr at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 12–10 Filip Mandrysz Filip Mandrysz has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:23What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mandrysz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Jr
Wrong
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1318 vs Mandrysz 1361
Mandrysz
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Mandrysz 40%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Mandrysz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Mandrysz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mandrysz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mandrysz form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.83 / Mandrysz 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mandrysz)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13080352
Jr1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Mandrysz1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr5wins
AwayMandrysz5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr42.9%3 of 7
AwayMandrysz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr7Mandrysz3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S2Jr5Mandrysz5n = 10split evenly
S3Jr4Mandrysz6n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S4Jr2Mandrysz5n = 7Mandrysz took 5 of 7
S5Jr2Mandrysz1n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrMandryszJ − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.937.7−0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 431 vs 215 / 42652.7%50.5%227 / 431 vs 215 / 426Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszJr 1.83/Mandrysz 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 09:10L. Jr—8860F. Mandrysz—1111113
LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr—11701182F. Mandrysz—811119113
WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr—711116113F. Mandrysz—11391142
LAug 8 · 14:10L. Jr—1151091F. Mandrysz—81112113
LJul 29 · 14:15L. Jr—136961F. Mandrysz—111111113
WJul 28 · 14:10L. Jr—613117123F. Mandrysz—1111511102
WJul 11 · 13:10L. Jr—111111113F. Mandrysz—761341
WJul 11 · 11:10L. Jr—1211113F. Mandrysz—10980
LJul 7 · 11:15L. Jr—1366101F. Mandrysz—111111123
WJul 4 · 09:20L. Jr—1111113F. Mandrysz—5960
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142WSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280WSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143LSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142
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