TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13079062
Played Sep 5Finished
Martin Sobota
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811101215131210911
Filip Mandrysz
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobota to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Sobota above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 111 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Martin Sobota at 54.0%
111 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobota 4–6 Filip Mandrysz Martin Sobota has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:59What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sobota
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Mandrysz
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobota 1372 vs Mandrysz 1361
Sobota
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobota 80% vs Mandrysz 40%
Sobota
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobota 60% vs Mandrysz 40%
Sobota
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobota -1 · Mandrysz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobota)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobota form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobota 1.73 / Mandrysz 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sobota)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13079062
Sobota1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite31% won 11 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it47% 9 of 19
Mandrysz2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 58 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back34% 28 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobota4wins
AwayMandrysz6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMandrysz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobota80%4 of 5
AwayMandrysz100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobota5Mandrysz5n = 10split evenly
S2Sobota1Mandrysz9n = 10Mandrysz took 9 of 10
S3Sobota6Mandrysz4n = 10Sobota took 6 of 10
S4Sobota4Mandrysz3n = 7Sobota took 4 of 7
S5Sobota1Mandrysz2n = 3Mandrysz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobotaMandryszS − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.840.9−3.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobotaMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 170 vs 215 / 42544.1%50.6%75 / 170 vs 215 / 425Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobotaSobota 1.73/Mandrysz 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sobota · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 15:15M. Sobota—118118163F. Mandrysz—511911142
LSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota—810151292F. Mandrysz—11121310113
WAug 8 · 17:14M. Sobota—11116113F. Mandrysz—991191
WAug 8 · 15:10M. Sobota—11511113F. Mandrysz—511881
LJul 11 · 10:10M. Sobota—12780F. Mandrysz—1411113
LJul 4 · 05:40M. Sobota—7490F. Mandrysz—1111113
LJun 21 · 16:15M. Sobota—1091161F. Mandrysz—12119113
LMay 10 · 16:35M. Sobota—96130F. Mandrysz—1111153
LMay 10 · 13:40M. Sobota—11511742F. Mandrysz—611911113
WFeb 7 · 16:40M. Sobota—111111113F. Mandrysz—613791
M. Sobota10
WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112WSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota2.207490R. Jancak1.611111113WAug 23 · 16:15R. Jancak1.531311941M. Sobota2.3815611113WAug 23 · 15:14M. Sobota1.9111117113J. Matus1.80971171
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280WSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113LSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143LSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142
Upcoming Matches
M. Sobota
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F. Mandrysz
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