TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071359
Played Sep 3Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711113119611114
Filip Mandrysz
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:42 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 84 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Filip Mandrysz at 54.2%
84 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 11–7 Filip Mandrysz Filip Mandrysz has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:42What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mandrysz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Jr
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1363 vs Mandrysz 1318
Jr
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Mandrysz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Mandrysz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Mandrysz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mandrysz)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.00 / Mandrysz 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mandrysz)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13071359
Jr2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 82 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back39% 26 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 28
Mandrysz1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 73 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it71% 49 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr6wins
AwayMandrysz4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr71.4%5 of 7
AwayMandrysz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr7Mandrysz3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S2Jr6Mandrysz4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Jr6Mandrysz4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jr2Mandrysz5n = 7Mandrysz took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrMandryszJ − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.934.4+3.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 421 vs 209 / 41553%50.4%223 / 421 vs 209 / 415Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszJr 2.00/Mandrysz 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 29 · 14:15L. Jr—136961F. Mandrysz—111111113
WJul 28 · 14:10L. Jr—613117123F. Mandrysz—1111511102
WJul 11 · 13:10L. Jr—111111113F. Mandrysz—761341
WJul 11 · 11:10L. Jr—1211113F. Mandrysz—10980
LJul 7 · 11:15L. Jr—1366101F. Mandrysz—111111123
WJul 4 · 09:20L. Jr—1111113F. Mandrysz—5960
WJul 4 · 07:40L. Jr—1111113F. Mandrysz—8350
LJun 25 · 10:45L. Jr—981181F. Mandrysz—11115113
WJun 20 · 11:15L. Jr—13711113F. Mandrysz—1111581
LJun 17 · 11:15L. Jr—9111091F. Mandrysz—11712113
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280WSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143
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