TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080379
Played Sep 5Finished
Filip Mandrysz
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171412118––––
Lukas Stempak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Lukas Stempak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 63 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Filip Mandrysz at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 3–0 Lukas Stempak Lukas Stempak has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:22What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Stempak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Mandrysz
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1335 vs Stempak 1332
Mandrysz
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 60% vs Stempak 20%
Mandrysz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 50% vs Stempak 30%
Mandrysz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz +2 · Stempak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mandrysz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 1.83 / Stempak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mandrysz)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13080379
Mandrysz1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Stempak1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMandrysz3wins
AwayStempak0wins
2 of 3 to a deciderMandrysz leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz1Stempak2n = 3Stempak took 2 of 3
S2Mandrysz2Stempak1n = 3Mandrysz took 2 of 3
S3Mandrysz3Stempak0n = 3Mandrysz took 3 of 3
S4Mandrysz1Stempak2n = 3Stempak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMandryszStempakM − SBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match46.743.3+3.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 419 vs 21 / 5250.4%40.4%211 / 419 vs 21 / 52Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszMandrysz 1.83/Stempak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WMar 15 · 09:40F. Mandrysz—81211113L. Stempak—1110691
WMar 15 · 08:10F. Mandrysz—911116113L. Stempak—11831192
WDec 7 · 07:40F. Mandrysz—1331111123L. Stempak—1111713102
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143LSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142
L. Stempak10
WSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192WAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma1.611011111282L. Stempak2.20127714113LAug 22 · 08:10R. Jancak1.91111188143L. Stempak1.80981111122LAug 22 · 07:10L. Stempak1.7310790P. Sturma2.001211113LAug 22 · 05:40L. Jr2.251111113L. Stempak1.577790LJul 25 · 08:43L. Stempak1.3641090L. Jr3.001112113LJul 25 · 08:15L. Stempak1.501110881M. Sobota2.5091211113WJul 25 · 06:45L. Jr2.5068100L. Stempak1.501111123
Upcoming Matches
F. Mandrysz
L. Stempak
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