TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12297020
Played Jul 25Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6118111012––––
Lukas Stempak
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:40 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Stempak to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Lukas Stempak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 58 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Lukas Stempak at 62.5%
58 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 1–1 Lukas Stempak Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:40What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stempak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jr 1405 vs Stempak 1376
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Stempak 60%
Stempak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Stempak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Stempak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Stempak)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.50 / Stempak 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Stempak)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12297020
Jr2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 62 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back43% 23 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Stempak1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite42% won 8 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it60% 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJr1wins
AwayStempak1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricJrStempakJ − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match29.028.5+0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 343 vs 20 / 4653.1%43.5%182 / 343 vs 20 / 46Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match41.039.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StempakJr 2.50/Stempak 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Stempak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stempak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 25 · 08:43L. Jr—1112113L. Stempak—41090
LJul 25 · 06:45L. Jr—68100L. Stempak—1111123
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142
L. Stempak10
WSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192WAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma1.611011111282L. Stempak2.20127714113LAug 22 · 08:10R. Jancak1.91111188143L. Stempak1.80981111122LAug 22 · 07:10L. Stempak1.7310790P. Sturma2.001211113LAug 22 · 05:40L. Jr2.251111113L. Stempak1.577790LJul 25 · 08:43L. Stempak1.3641090L. Jr3.001112113LJul 25 · 08:15L. Stempak1.501110881M. Sobota2.5091211113
Upcoming Matches
L. Jr
L. Stempak
Nothing scheduled
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