TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12474759
Played Aug 22Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121171171214811
Lukas Stempak
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:46 and never touched — 71.4% is still 71.4%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
71.4%
71.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Lukas Stempak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 103 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 71.4%
103 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 1–1 Lukas Stempak Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:46What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sturma
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1310 vs Stempak 1354
Stempak
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 60% vs Stempak 0%
Sturma
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 60% vs Stempak 30%
Sturma
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma -1 · Stempak -5
Stempak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Sturma) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.61 / Stempak 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Sturma)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12474759
Sturma1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite45% won 82 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it54% 49 of 91
Stempak2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSturma1wins
AwayStempak1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSturmaStempakSturma − StempakBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match43.038.5+4.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 804 vs 21 / 5048.6%42%391 / 804 vs 21 / 50Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSturma 1.61/Stempak 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stempak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma—1011111282L. Stempak—127714113
WAug 22 · 07:10P. Sturma—1211113L. Stempak—10790
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler1.83913971P. Sturma1.83111111113
L. Stempak10
WSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LAug 22 · 08:10R. Jancak1.91111188143L. Stempak1.80981111122LAug 22 · 07:10L. Stempak1.7310790P. Sturma2.001211113LAug 22 · 05:40L. Jr2.251111113L. Stempak1.577790LJul 25 · 08:43L. Stempak1.3641090L. Jr3.001112113LJul 25 · 08:15L. Stempak1.501110881M. Sobota2.5091211113WJul 25 · 06:45L. Jr2.5068100L. Stempak1.501111123
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