TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13061656
Played Sep 2Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511115811116119
Filip Mandrysz
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:13 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 88 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Filip Mandrysz at 54.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 28–31 Filip Mandrysz Patrik Sturma has won 28 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:13What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mandrysz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-31 in 59
Mandrysz
Wrong
gap of 3 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1402 vs Mandrysz 1302
Sturma
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 80% vs Mandrysz 60%
Sturma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 70% vs Mandrysz 50%
Sturma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma +2 · Mandrysz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mandrysz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 2.10 / Mandrysz 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mandrysz)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13061656
Sturma2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 136 of 278
Down 0–1, comes back38% 53 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Mandrysz1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 71 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it72% 48 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma6wins
AwayMandrysz4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma42.9%3 of 7
AwayMandrysz0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma7Mandrysz3n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S2Sturma4Mandrysz6n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S3Sturma5Mandrysz5n = 10split evenly
S4Sturma5Mandrysz5n = 10split evenly
S5Sturma2Mandrysz1n = 3Sturma took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaMandryszS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.838.6+1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 827 vs 207 / 41248.9%50.2%404 / 827 vs 207 / 412Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszSturma 2.10/Mandrysz 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma—511811113F. Mandrysz—11511692
WAug 30 · 14:10P. Sturma—11117113F. Mandrysz—951171
WAug 30 · 13:10P. Sturma—71111113F. Mandrysz—111691
LAug 30 · 12:10P. Sturma—1171071F. Mandrysz—91112113
WAug 20 · 12:40P. Sturma—711119123F. Mandrysz—118811102
LAug 20 · 12:10P. Sturma—115581F. Mandrysz—81111113
LAug 7 · 11:45P. Sturma—1178101F. Mandrysz—91111123
WAug 4 · 09:24P. Sturma—12711113F. Mandrysz—1011531
WAug 4 · 06:15P. Sturma—11711113F. Mandrysz—711991
LAug 3 · 07:15P. Sturma—11811832F. Mandrysz—411811113
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler1.83913971P. Sturma1.83111111113LAug 30 · 15:10R. Jancak1.6111511113P. Sturma2.20511391
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280WSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143
Upcoming Matches
P. Sturma
Nothing scheduled
F. Mandrysz
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