TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13061304
Played Sep 2Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811117911119116
Radek Zajac
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:25 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Radek Zajac below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 94 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 59.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 3–3 Radek Zajac Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:25What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Zajac
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1380 vs Zajac 1214
Sturma
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 60% vs Zajac 20%
Sturma
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 60% vs Zajac 20%
Sturma
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma -1 · Zajac +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sturma) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zajac form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.83 / Zajac 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sturma)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13061304
Sturma1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Zajac1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSturma3wins
AwayZajac3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturman = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZajac75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma2Zajac4n = 6Zajac took 4 of 6
S2Sturma4Zajac2n = 6Sturma took 4 of 6
S3Sturma4Zajac2n = 6Sturma took 4 of 6
S4Sturma2Zajac2n = 4split evenly
S5Sturma1Zajac2n = 3Zajac took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSturmaZajacS − ZBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match40.239.3+0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaZajacBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 824 vs 9 / 2848.7%32.1%401 / 824 vs 9 / 28Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSturma 1.83/Zajac 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 5 · 12:49P. Sturma—14480R. Zajac—1611113
LAug 5 · 11:15P. Sturma—81171182R. Zajac—116116113
LJul 24 · 06:10P. Sturma—91211492R. Zajac—1110711113
WJul 21 · 13:15P. Sturma—6111111113R. Zajac—11731362
WJul 21 · 10:15P. Sturma—1111113R. Zajac—6990
WJul 7 · 07:45P. Sturma—11812113R. Zajac—9111091
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler1.83913971P. Sturma1.83111111113LAug 30 · 15:10R. Jancak1.6111511113P. Sturma2.20511391
R. Zajac10
LSep 2 · 12:45F. Mandrysz1.501111113R. Zajac2.504690LSep 2 · 12:10Z. Chovancik1.5711116113R. Zajac2.25571141LSep 2 · 11:10R. Zajac2.38118111262F. Mandrysz1.53511814113WAug 20 · 16:40L. Jr1.22611781R. Zajac4.0011511113LAug 20 · 16:10D. Stefek1.6112115113R. Zajac2.201061161LAug 20 · 15:10R. Zajac2.75116111082T. Slivka1.40811912113LAug 20 · 13:40L. Jr1.441111113R. Zajac2.639990LAug 17 · 08:43K. Drozd1.61101111113R. Zajac2.20128871LAug 17 · 07:45L. Snr1.57116211113R. Zajac2.2591111842LAug 17 · 07:15K. Drozd1.9111311153R. Zajac1.804117131
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