TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12445296
Played Aug 17Finished
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119611211118114
Radek Zajac
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Snr to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Snr above · Radek Zajac below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 84 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Snr at 59.7%
84 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Snr 2–1 Radek Zajac Radek Zajac has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:07What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Snr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1426 vs Zajac 1231
Snr
Correct
both rated, 195 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 80% vs Zajac 20%
Snr
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 70% vs Zajac 30%
Snr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr +2 · Zajac -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Snr) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zajac form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.57 / Zajac 2.25
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Snr)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12445296
Snr1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 20 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Zajac2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 5 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back13% 1 of 8
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSnr2wins
AwayZajac1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSnr leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr2Zajac1n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
S2Snr0Zajac3n = 3Zajac took 3 of 3
S3Snr2Zajac1n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
S4Snr2Zajac1n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSnrZajacS − ZBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match40.039.7+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrZajacBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 100 vs 8 / 2448%33.3%48 / 100 vs 8 / 24Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.57/Zajac 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.9%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 17 · 07:45L. Snr—116211113R. Zajac—91111842
WAug 14 · 11:10L. Snr—111011113R. Zajac—912971
LJul 24 · 08:10L. Snr—981181R. Zajac—11116113
L. Snr10
WSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113WSep 2 · 08:55J. Sindler1.671181171L. Snr2.1013117113WSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113LSep 2 · 07:10L. Snr2.10681151J. Sindler1.6711113113LSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LSep 1 · 09:14L. Snr1.4099100F. Mandrysz2.751111123WSep 1 · 08:10L. Snr1.5713113113F. Mandrysz2.251171181WSep 1 · 06:40J. Sindler1.57151711972L. Snr2.251715911113LSep 1 · 06:10A. Strelec1.8311711113L. Snr1.83911491
R. Zajac10
LSep 2 · 12:45F. Mandrysz1.501111113R. Zajac2.504690LSep 2 · 12:10Z. Chovancik1.5711116113R. Zajac2.25571141LSep 2 · 11:10R. Zajac2.38118111262F. Mandrysz1.53511814113LSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962WAug 20 · 16:40L. Jr1.22611781R. Zajac4.0011511113LAug 20 · 16:10D. Stefek1.6112115113R. Zajac2.201061161LAug 20 · 15:10R. Zajac2.75116111082T. Slivka1.40811912113LAug 20 · 13:40L. Jr1.441111113R. Zajac2.639990LAug 17 · 08:43K. Drozd1.61101111113R. Zajac2.20128871LAug 17 · 07:15K. Drozd1.9111311153R. Zajac1.804117131
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