TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089620
Played Sep 7Finished
Filip Mandrysz
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12108119111171113
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:42 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Snr to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Lukas Krupnik Snr below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 103 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Snr at 56.2%
103 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 2–4 Lukas Krupnik Snr Filip Mandrysz has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:42What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Snr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Snr
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1338 vs Snr 1380
Snr
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 40% vs Snr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 60% vs Snr 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz -1 · Snr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Snr) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 2.10 / Snr 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Snr)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13089620
Mandrysz2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 58 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back34% 28 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Snr1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 21 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it71% 17 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMandrysz2wins
AwaySnr4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderSnr leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz66.7%2 of 3
AwaySnr100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz3Snr3n = 6split evenly
S2Mandrysz1Snr5n = 6Snr took 5 of 6
S3Mandrysz3Snr3n = 6split evenly
S4Mandrysz2Snr1n = 3Mandrysz took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricMandryszSnrM − SBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match33.536.7−3.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 427 vs 56 / 11950.4%47.1%215 / 427 vs 56 / 119Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrMandrysz 2.10/Snr 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz—128911112L. Snr—1011117133
WSep 1 · 09:14F. Mandrysz—1111123L. Snr—99100
LSep 1 · 08:10F. Mandrysz—1171181L. Snr—13113113
LAug 27 · 08:39F. Mandrysz—3650L. Snr—1111113
WAug 27 · 08:10F. Mandrysz—11811113L. Snr—911791
LAug 14 · 11:40F. Mandrysz—9690L. Snr—1111113
F. Mandrysz10
WSep 7 · 08:15T. Slivka3.409390F. Mandrysz1.301111113LSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280WSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113
L. Snr10
WSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113LSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113WSep 2 · 08:55J. Sindler1.671181171L. Snr2.1013117113WSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113LSep 2 · 07:10L. Snr2.10681151J. Sindler1.6711113113LSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LSep 1 · 09:14L. Snr1.4099100F. Mandrysz2.751111123WSep 1 · 08:10L. Snr1.5713113113F. Mandrysz2.251171181WSep 1 · 06:40J. Sindler1.57151711972L. Snr2.251715911113LSep 1 · 06:10A. Strelec1.8311711113L. Snr1.83911491
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