TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089631
Played Sep 7Finished
Adam Strelec
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711115811611––
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Strelec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdam Strelec above · Lukas Krupnik Snr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Adam Strelec at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Adam Strelec 2–3 Lukas Krupnik Snr Adam Strelec has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:51What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Snr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strelec 1333 vs Snr 1380
Snr
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strelec 60% vs Snr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strelec 60% vs Snr 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strelec +2 · Snr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Snr) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrelec 1.83 / Snr 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Snr)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13089631
Strelec1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Snr1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeStrelec2wins
AwaySnr3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderSnr leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrelecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySnr100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strelec2Snr3n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
S2Strelec3Snr2n = 5Strelec took 3 of 5
S3Strelec3Snr2n = 5Strelec took 3 of 5
S4Strelec2Snr2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricStrelecSnrStrelec − SnrBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.238.4−1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrelecSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 217 vs 56 / 11948.9%47.1%106 / 217 vs 56 / 119Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrStrelec 1.83/Snr 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec—711861L. Snr—11511113
LSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec—913111162L. Snr—1111137113
WSep 1 · 06:10A. Strelec—11711113L. Snr—911491
LJun 4 · 12:40A. Strelec—391171L. Snr—11119113
WJun 4 · 09:40A. Strelec—1111123L. Snr—97100
A. Strelec10
WSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131LSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113LSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113WSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.6788111192A. Strelec2.10111197113WSep 2 · 06:10J. Sindler1.80139513102A. Strelec1.9111111111123WSep 1 · 08:43J. Sindler1.838111151A. Strelec1.8311139113LSep 1 · 07:40J. Sindler1.7311117113A. Strelec2.00891181LSep 1 · 07:10F. Mandrysz1.671111113A. Strelec2.109460WSep 1 · 06:10A. Strelec1.8311711113L. Snr1.83911491
L. Snr10
WSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113WSep 2 · 08:55J. Sindler1.671181171L. Snr2.1013117113WSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113LSep 2 · 07:10L. Snr2.10681151J. Sindler1.6711113113LSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LSep 1 · 09:14L. Snr1.4099100F. Mandrysz2.751111123WSep 1 · 08:10L. Snr1.5713113113F. Mandrysz2.251171181WSep 1 · 06:40J. Sindler1.57151711972L. Snr2.251715911113LSep 1 · 06:10A. Strelec1.8311711113L. Snr1.83911491
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