TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13055565
Played Sep 1Finished
Jaroslav Sindler
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119711118––
Adam Strelec
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:17 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 76 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 54.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 18–16 Adam Strelec Adam Strelec has won 16 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-16 in 34
Sindler
Correct
gap of 2 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1317 vs Strelec 1318
Strelec
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 40% vs Strelec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 60% vs Strelec 30%
Sindler
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler -2 · Strelec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sindler) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.73 / Strelec 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sindler)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13055565
Sindler1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite49% won 127 of 260
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it68% 83 of 123
Strelec2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 35 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler6wins
AwayStrelec4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler83.3%5 of 6
AwayStrelec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler6Strelec4n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S2Sindler6Strelec4n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S3Sindler4Strelec6n = 10Strelec took 6 of 10
S4Sindler4Strelec4n = 8split evenly
S5Sindler2Strelec1n = 3Sindler took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerStrelecSindler − StrelecBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.438.1+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime375 / 738 vs 104 / 21450.8%48.6%375 / 738 vs 104 / 214Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.73/Strelec 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 06:10J. Sindler—139513102A. Strelec—11111111123
LSep 1 · 08:43J. Sindler—8111151A. Strelec—11139113
WSep 1 · 07:40J. Sindler—11117113A. Strelec—891181
WAug 28 · 06:10J. Sindler—1111810113A. Strelec—66111282
WAug 14 · 11:45J. Sindler—11116113A. Strelec—771171
LAug 6 · 09:13J. Sindler—511291A. Strelec—11911113
WAug 6 · 08:15J. Sindler—51111113A. Strelec—117671
WAug 5 · 09:13J. Sindler—114119113A. Strelec—71161162
LAug 5 · 08:15J. Sindler—9860A. Strelec—1111113
WJul 26 · 15:45J. Sindler—1311113A. Strelec—11390
J. Sindler10
LSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113WSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942WSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102LSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571LSep 5 · 15:10J. Sindler2.508560O. Skvor1.501111113WSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113WSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113LSep 3 · 11:45J. Sindler1.61121145102R. Jancak2.201061111123
A. Strelec10
WSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131LSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113LSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113WSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.6788111192A. Strelec2.10111197113WSep 2 · 06:10J. Sindler1.80139513102A. Strelec1.9111111111123WSep 1 · 08:43J. Sindler1.838111151A. Strelec1.8311139113LSep 1 · 07:10F. Mandrysz1.671111113A. Strelec2.109460WSep 1 · 06:10A. Strelec1.8311711113L. Snr1.83911491LAug 28 · 08:38A. Strelec1.736560J. Matus2.001111113
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